FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Decline Over the Latest Four Weeks
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Crude oil & benzene prices continue to fall.
- Metals prices are mixed.
- Lumber & rubber prices rise.
The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) fell 0.9% (-4.5% y/y) during the four weeks ended December 1, 2023 continuing the declines since the recent peak in the last week of September. The index is 23.9% below the cycle peak in the second week of March 2022.
Prices in the crude oil & benzene group declined 4.1% (+3.7% y/y) in the last four weeks. The cost of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 8.2% to $71.60 per barrel, down 4.4% y/y. The price of the petro-chemical benzene, used for making plastics & synthetic fibers, fell 5.2% (+31.4% y/y) in four weeks after weakening 6.5% in the prior four weeks. Excluding crude oil & benzene, the industrial commodity price index fell 0.5% (-4.5% y/y) in the latest four week period.
Prices in the miscellaneous group weakened 1.2% (-9.1% y/y) in the latest four-week period. Framing lumber prices improved 0.9% (-14.2% y/y) and the cost of natural rubber gained 0.4% (7.6% y/y) over the last four weeks.
Metals group prices were off 0.5% (-6.1% y/y) over the most recent period as zinc prices fell 4.6% (-22.5% y/y). Lead prices weakened 6.0% (-6.8% y/y) in four weeks while aluminum prices fell 5.1% (-13.6% y/y). Tin prices were off 2.0% (-1.5% y/y). To the upside, copper scrap prices rose 3.1% (-0.9% y/y) in the last four weeks while the cost of steel scrap increased 11.8% (10.0% y/y).
Prices in the textile group moved 0.8% higher during the last four weeks, down 1.4% y/y. Cotton prices rose 5.0%, though they were off 7.3% y/y. The cost of burlap eased 0.2% (-2.3% y/y) during the last four weeks.
The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON and CMDTY databases.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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