U.S. Durable Goods Orders Move Higher in August
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Orders less transportation increase moderately.
- Shipments rise broadly amongst categories.
- Order backlogs & inventories improve.
New orders for durable goods rose 0.2% (3.5% y/y) during August after falling 5.6% in July, revised from -5.2%. A 0.5% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Durable goods orders excluding transportation increased 0.4% (1.1% y/y) in August after a little-revised 0.1% rise in July. Orders for electrical equipment & appliances strengthened 1.1% (5.5% y/y) after easing 0.3% in July while orders for computers & electronic products improved 0.3% (1.0% y/y) after a 0.6% July decline. Machinery orders improved 0.5% (0.1% y/y) after rising 0.7% in July. Primary metals orders fell 0.6% (+3.2% y/y) after easing 0.1% in July while fabricated metals orders rose 0.5% (0.6% y/y). Defense product orders rose 15.1% in August (-2.8% y/y) following a 1.7% gain.
Orders for nondefense capital goods declined 2.9% last month (+5.6% y/y) after declining 16.7% in July, while excluding aircraft, orders improved 0.9% (0.3% y/y) following a two consecutive 0.4% monthly declines.
Transportation orders eased 0.2% in August (+8.5% y/y) after falling 14.8% in July, revised from -14.3%. Aircraft and parts orders declined 9.1% (+23.5% y/y) following a 41.0% decline in July. Nondefense aircraft orders fell 15.9% (+43.7% y/y) after declining 45.7% in July. Defense aircraft orders rose 19.2% (-12.6% y/y) after an 8.3% July shortfall. Motor vehicle & parts orders rose 0.3% (6.3% y/y) after rising 0.7% in July.
Shipments of all manufactured goods rose 1.3% (0.4% y/y) in August following a 0.7% July gain. Nondurable goods shipments jumped 2.1% in August (-2.2% y/y) after rising 1.4% in July. Shipments of durable goods rose 0.5% (3.4% y/y) following two months of little change. Transportation shipments rose 0.9% (8.6% y/y) following a 0.3% fall, while excluding transportation, durable goods shipments increased 0.3% (1.0% y/y) following little change during the prior two months.
Inventories of all manufacturing industries rose 0.4% (0.2% y/y) following a 0.1% gain in July. Inventories of durable goods rose 0.2% (1.3% y/y) after negligible declines in each of the prior two months. Inventories of nondurable goods rose 0.6% (-1.6% y/y) after rising 0.3% in July.
Unfilled orders of durable goods increased 0.4% (6.5% y/y) in August after rising 0.5% in July. Excluding transportation, durable goods order backlogs held roughly steady (-0.6% y/y), about as they have for the last twelve months.
Manufacturers’ orders and shipments of durable goods, as well as nondurable goods, are compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau; they are available in Haver’s USECON database. Unfilled orders and inventories are also included. The Action Economics forecast data are in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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