U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed in Latest Week
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Gasoline & diesel fuel prices continue to fall.
- Crude oil costs stabilize after prior week’s decline.
- Natural gas prices strengthen for fourth straight week.
Retail gasoline prices for all grades declined to $3.71 per gallon (+1.7% y/y) in the week ended May 20 from $3.73 in the prior week. It was the lowest price in seven weeks and compares to a low of $3.18 in the middle of January. The recent high stands at $4.00 per gallon in the third week of September, and the all-time high was $5.11 in the week ended June 13, 2022. Retail prices for on-highway diesel fuel fell to an average $3.79 per gallon (-2.4% y/y) last week from $3.85 in the prior week. A recent low of $3.77 per gallon occurred in the week ended July 3, 2023.
The average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil of $79.65 per barrel (+11.2% y/y) in the week ended May 17 compared to an average $79.63 per barrel in the prior week. It remained well above its low of $69.37 per barrel in the week of June 30, 2023 but below a high of $91.45 in the week of September 29, 2023. The all-time high was seen in the week of July 4, 2008 at $142.46 per barrel. Yesterday, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was $79.80 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude oil declined to $83.00 per barrel (+9.6% y/y) in the week ended May 17 compared to $83.36 in the prior week. The price of Brent has recently ranged from a low of $73.55 in the week ended June 30, 2023 to a high of $127.40 in the week ended June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $83.13 per barrel.
Natural gas prices improved to an average of $2.23/mmbtu (-2.6% y/y) in the week ended May 17 from $2.00/mmbtu in the prior week. These compare to a high of $3.20 averaged in the week of October 13, 2023. Yesterday, the price of natural gas was $2.52/mmbtu.
Gasoline demand fell 4.5% y/y in the four weeks ended May 10 after declining 4.0% y/y in the four weeks ended May 3. Demand for all petroleum products improved 0.7% y/y after holding steady y/y in the prior four-week period. Crude oil input to refineries rose 6.9% y/y in the four weeks ended May 10, roughly the same as during the previous four week period.
Gasoline inventories rose 4.3% y/y in the week of May 10 after rising 3.8% y/y in the prior week. Inventories of residual fuel oil fell 11.2% y/y in the week of May 10 after declining 14.8% y/y in the previous week. Crude oil inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, eased 0.3% y/y in the week of May 10, following a 0.3% y/y rise in the prior week.
Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories eased w/w to 26.2 days from 26.4 days in the week of May 3. The recent low was 23.4 days in the week of June 30, 2023. Crude oil inventories fell to 28.7 days of supply in the week of May 10 from 29.0 days in the prior week. These compare to a recent high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023 and a low of 25.0 days in the week of September 1, 2023.
These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s WEEKLY & USENERGY database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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