U.S. Energy Prices Strengthen in Latest Week
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Gasoline prices have been rising all month.
- Crude oil prices continue to strengthen.
- Natural gas prices rise slightly.
Retail gasoline prices for all grades increased to $3.64 per gallon (3.0% y/y) in the week ended March 25 after rising to $3.57 in the prior week. These compare to a low of $3.18 in the middle of January. The recent high stands at $4.00 per gallon in the third week of September, and the all-time high was $5.11 in the week ended June 13, 2022. Retail prices for on-highway diesel fuel held steady at an average $4.03 per gallon (-2.3% y/y) last week. A recent low of $3.77 per gallon occurred in the week ended July 3, 2023.
The average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose to $82.29 per barrel (18.6% y/y) in the week ended March 22 from an average $80.06 in the prior week. It was the highest price since late-October and remained well above its low of $69.37 per barrel in the week of June 30, 2023. The price remained below a high of $91.45 in the week of September 29, 2023. The all-time high was seen in the week of July 4, 2008 at $142.46 per barrel. Yesterday, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was $81.95 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude oil increased to $85.88 per barrel (15.7% y/y) in the week ended March 22 and made up the prior week’s decline to $84.52. The price of Brent has recently ranged from a low of $73.55 in the week ended June 30, 2023 to a high of $127.40 in the week ended June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $86.18 per barrel.
Natural gas prices rose to an average of $1.54/mmbtu (-25.2% y/y) in the week ended March 22 and made up virtually all of the prior week’s decline to $1.40/mmbtu in the prior week. These were the lowest prices since December 1998 and compare to a recent high of $3.20 averaged in the week of October 13, 2023. Yesterday, the natural gas price was $1.46/mmbtu.
Gasoline demand rose 0.3% y/y in the four weeks ended March 15 after falling 1.3% y/y in the four weeks ended March 8. Demand for all petroleum products rose 2.2% y/y after rising 1.0% y/y in the prior four-week period. Crude oil input to refineries rose 1.1% y/y in the four weeks ended March 15 after slipping 0.3% y/y in the previous four week period.
Gasoline inventories rose 0.5% y/y in the week of March 15 following a 0.8% y/y decline in the prior week. Inventories of residual fuel oil fell 3.2% y/y in the week of March 15 after declining 6.0% y/y in the previous week. Crude oil inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, decreased 5.3% y/y in the week of March 15, about the same as they did in the prior week.
Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories were 26.1 days in the week of March 15 versus 27.0 days in the prior week. The recent low was 23.4 days in the week of June 30, 2023. Crude oil inventories declined to 29.0 days of supply in the week of March 15, down from 29.7 days in the prior week. These compare to a recent high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023 and a low of 25.0 days in the week of September 1, 2023.
These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s WEEKLY & USENERGY database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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