U.S. Existing Home Sales Decline in September
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Sales fall to 13-year low.
- Home prices weaken.
- Purchases fall in most regions of the country.
Sales of existing homes declined 2.0% during September (-15.4% y/y) to 3.96 million (SAAR) after falling 0.7% to an unrevised 4.04 million in August. Sales stood at the lowest level since October 2010 and have been falling since the February high of 4.55 million. Sales peaked at 6.56 million in January 2021. They remained higher than their low of 4.00 million earlier this year. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected September sales of 3.80 million units.
The median price of an existing home (NSA) fell 2.4% (+2.8% y/y) to $394,300, the third straight month of price decline. Prices stood 4.7% below the June 2022 peak of $413,800. The median price of an existing single-family home declined 2.7% (+2.5% y/y) to $399,200 after easing 0.2% in August. The median price for condo & co-ops eased 0.1% (+6.8%) to $353,800 after falling 1.0% in August. Prices fell last month amongst all regions of the country.
Single-family home sales fell 1.9% (-15.8 y/y) to 3.53 million units after falling 1.4% in August. Sales remained 39.7% lower than the high of 5.85 million in October 2020. Condo and co-op sales fell 2.3% (-12.2% y/y) to 430,000 after rising 4.8% in August. Sales have fallen 42.7% from their January 2021 high of 750,000.
Sales were mixed m/m across the country. Sales in the Northeast rose 4.2% (-16.7% y/y) to 500,000 last month after holding steady in August. Sales in the Midwest weakened 4.1% in September (-18.4% y/y) to 930,000 after rising 1.0% in the prior month. Sales in the South fell 1.1% (-11.7% y/y) to 1.82 million, the sixth decline in seven months. Sales in the West declined 5.3% (-19.3% y/y) to 710,000 after falling 2.6% in August.
The number of existing homes for sale (NSA) rose 2.7% (-8.1% y/y) to 1.13 million in September after falling 0.9% in August. The supply of homes on the market (NSA) edged up to 3.4 months at the current selling rate, significantly higher than the record low of 1.6 months reached in January, 2022. It was the largest supply since June 2020. These figures date back to January 1999.
The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's USECON database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the REALTOR database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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