U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall Further in July
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Sales decline unexpectedly to six-month low.
- Home price slip is first since January.
- Purchases fall in most regions of the country.
Sales of existing homes weakened 2.2% during July (-16.6% y/y) to 4.070 million (SAAR) after falling to an unrevised 4.160 million in June. Sales have been falling since the February high of 4.550 million but remained up from the January low of 4.00 million. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected July sales of 4.15 million units.
The median price of an existing home (NSA) eased 0.8% (+1.9% y/y) to $406,700 following a 3.4% June increase. They were 1.7% below the June 2022 peak of $413,800. The median price of an existing single-family home fell 0.8% (+1.6% y/y) to $412,300 after rising 3.5% in June. The median price for condo & co-ops declined 1.3% (+4.5%) to $357,600 after rising 2.5% in June. Prices were mixed last month amongst regions of the country.
Single-family home sales fell 1.9% (-16.3% y/y) to 3.65 million units after falling 3.4% to an unrevised 3.72 million in June. Sales remained 37.6% lower than the high of 5.85 million in October 2020. Condo and co-op sales weakened 4.5% (-19.2% y/y) to 420,000 after falling 2.2% in June. Sales have fallen 44.0% from the January 2021 high of 750,000.
Sales were mixed m/m across the country. Sales in the Northeast were off 5.9% (-23.8% y/y) to 480,000 last month following a 2.0% June rise. Sales in the Midwest declined 3.0% in July (-20.0% y/y) to 960,000 after holding steady in the prior month. Sales in the South fell 2.6% (-14.3% y/y) to 1.86 million after falling 5.4% In June. Working 2.7% higher (-12.5% y/y) were sales in the West at 770,000 after a 5.1% June decline.
The number of existing homes for sale (NSA) rose 3.7% (-14.6% y/y) to 1.11 million in July after falling 0.9% in June. The supply of homes on the market (NSA) rose slightly to 3.3 months at the current selling rate, significantly higher than the record low of 1.6 months reached in January, 2022. These figures date back to January 1999.
The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's USECON database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the REALTOR database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the AS1REPNA database.
The Evolution of Disagreement in the Dot Plot from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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