U.S. Existing Home Sales Improve Modestly in November
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Sales move up from 13-year low.
- Home prices continue to weaken.
- Purchases are mixed throughout the country.
Sales of existing homes rose 0.8% (-7.3% y/y) during November to 3.82 million (SAAR) after an unrevised 4.1% October drop. September’s 2.2% decline was little changed. Sales remained at the lowest level since August 2010 after the most recent peak of 6.56 million in January 2021. The sales figures are based on closings of sales signed in earlier months. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected October sales of 3.78 million units.
The median price of all existing homes (NSA) fell 1.0% (+4.0% y/y) to $387,600, the fifth consecutive month of price decline. Prices were 6.3% below the June 2022 peak of $413,800. The median price of an existing single-family home fell 1.0% (+3.5% y/y) to $392,100 after easing 0.4% in October. The median price for condos & co-ops declined 1.3% (+8.6%) to $350,100 after a 0.3% October improvement.
Single-family home sales rose 0.9% (-17.3% y/y) to 3.41 million units after falling steadily since early-2022. Sales were 41.7 % lower than the high of 5.85 million in October 2020. Condo and co-op sales held steady (-6.8% y/y) at 410,000 after weakening 2.4% in October. Sales have fallen 45.3% from their January 2021 high of 750,000.
Overall sales were mixed m/m across the country. Sales in the Northeast fell 2.1% (-13.0% y/y) to 470,000 last month after declining 4.0% in October. Sales in the Midwest rose 1.1% (-8.7% y/y) in November to 940,000 after holding steady in October. Sales in the South rose 4.7% (-4.3% y/y) to 1.77 million after five straight months of decline. Sales in the West declined 7.2% (-8.6% y/y) to 640,000 after falling 1.4% in October.
The number of existing homes for sale (NSA) fell 1.7% (+0.9% y/y) to 1.13 million in November after increasing 1.8% in October. The supply of homes on the market at the current selling rate (NSA) eased to 3.5 months from 3.6 months. The record low in supply of 1.6 months was reached in January, 2022. These figures date back to January 1999.
The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's USECON database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the REALTOR database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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