U.S. Factory Orders Edge Higher in October
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Total manufacturing orders show tepid gains amongst most industries.
- Shipments remain under pressure.
- Order backlogs rise, but inventories ease.
Total factory orders rose 0.2% (1.8% y/y) during October after a 0.2% easing in September. A 0.3% increase had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Orders for durable goods rose 0.3% (2.8% y/y) following a 0.4% decline. A 0.2% October rise was reported in the advance release. Primary metals orders fell 0.6% (+0.9% y/y). Fabricated metals orders rose 0.1% (2.4% y/y). Machinery orders rose 0.5% both m/m and y/y while computer & electronics orders edged 0.1% higher (2.6% y/y). Electrical equipment & appliance orders rose 1.3% (3.9% y/y) and transportation equipment orders increased 0.5% (5.2% y/y). Orders for furniture fell 0.8% (+1.2% y/y).
Orders for nondurable goods, which equal shipments, rose 0.1% (0.9% y/y). Food product orders held steady (+1.6% y/y) while orders for textile products rose 0.3% (-0.9% y/y). Petroleum orders rose 0.6% in October (-7.7% y/y) while chemicals orders held steady (4.8% y/y). Orders for plastics and rubber products fell 0.4% (+0.6% y/y) in October.
Total shipments eased 0.2% (+1.6% y/y), the third consecutive monthly decline. Shipments excluding transportation products improved 0.1% (0.9% y/y). Durable goods shipments fell 0.5% (+2.3% y/y). A 2.0% decline (+5.4% y/y) in shipments of transportation equipment led the decline. Shipments of primary metals rose 0.2% (1.3% y/y) and fabricated metals shipments improved 0.4% (1.1% y/y). Shipments of computers increased 0.6% (1.1% y/y) but machinery shipments fell 0.4% (-0.3% y/y). Shipments of furniture declined 0.6% (+1.0% y/y).
Unfilled orders increased 0.4% (3.3% y/y) in October following three straight months of modest increase. Excluding transportation, order backlogs rose 0.2% and were unchanged y/y. Unfilled orders for nondefense aircraft & parts rose 0.5% (7.9% y/y).
Total inventories eased 0.1% (+0.1% y/y) in October after falling 0.3% in September. Inventories of durable goods were little changed (+0.7% y/y) for the third month in the last four while inventories of nondurable goods eased 0.1% (-0.9% y/y) after falling 0.4% in September.
The factory sector data are available in Haver’s USECON database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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