U.S. Factory Orders Rebound in December
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- New orders recover sharp November decline.
- Shipments continue to fall.
- Unfilled orders and inventories strengthen.
Total factory orders increased 1.8% (8.6% y/y) during December after falling 1.9% in November, revised from -1.8%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. A 2.3% decrease had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Factory orders excluding the transportation sector fell 1.2% (+4.0% y/y), the same as in November.
Durable goods orders rose 5.6% (11.7% y/y) in December after falling 1.8% in the prior month . A 16.9% rise (32.7% y/y) in transportation equipment orders powered the increase. It reflected a surge in nondefense aircraft orders even though motor vehicle orders eased 0.7% (+7.7% y/y). Electrical equipment & appliance orders rose 1.1% (5.3% y/y) while machinery orders fell 1.7% (+4.4% y/y). Orders for computers & electronic products eased 0.5% (+2.4% y/y).
Orders for nondurable goods, which equal shipments, declined 1.9% (+5.4% y/y). Petroleum & coal shipments declined 9.6% (+12.9% y/y). Food product shipments edged 0.1% higher (4.0% y/y), while apparel shipments surged 2.7% (8.4% y/y). Textile product shipments improved 1.2% (-0.5% y/y) as paper product shipments rose 0.4% (0.5% y/y). Basic chemical shipments held steady (1.4% y/y).
Total manufacturing shipments decreased 0.7% (+6.9% y/y) in December. Shipments excluding transportation fell 1.2% (+4.8% y/y), about the same as in November. Shipments of durable goods edged up 0.4% (8.4% y/y). Electrical equipment and appliance shipments eased 0.1% (+7.3% y/y) and transportation shipments rose 1.6% (18.0% y/y). Primary metals shipments slipped 0.5% (-0.4% y/y) while machinery shipments weakened 1.1% (+6.0% y/y).
Unfilled orders increased 1.3% (7.3% y/y) in December even though unfilled orders excluding transportation were unchanged (2.2% y/y).
Inventories rose 0.4% (+6.4% y/y) after holding steady in November. Excluding transportation, inventories rose 0.2% (7.2% y/y). Durable goods inventories rose 0.7% (5.8% y/y) and nondurable goods inventories fell 0.2% (+7.4% y/y).
The factory sector data are available in Haver’s USECON database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
Asia
