U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Retail gasoline prices weaken.
- Crude oil prices decline to four-week low.
- Natural gas prices steady.
Retail gasoline prices fell to $3.60 per gallon (-13.9% y/y) last week from $3.66 during the prior week. The cost remained above the $3.09 low at the end of December but was below the mid-June 2022 peak of $5.01 per gallon. The retail price of diesel fuel declined to $4.02 per gallon (-27.1% y/y) last week from $4.08 per gallon in the previous week. It reached a recent peak of $5.81 per gallon in the third week of June 2022.
The average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell to $76.31 per barrel (-25.8% y/y) in the week ended April 28 from $79.22 in the prior week. Prices remained above the low of $74.29 in the first week of January. Yesterday, the price was $75.66 per barrel. The average price of Brent crude oil declined to $81.40 per barrel (-21.7% y/y) last week after easing to $84.62 per barrel in the previous week. The price peaked at $127.40 in mid-June of 2022.
The price of natural gas was unchanged at $2.21/mmbtu (-67.5% y/y) in the week ended April 28. Prices have fallen from their recent high of $6.78/mmbtu in the third week of December and from $9.56/mmbtu in the last week of August of 2022. Yesterday, the price was $2.21/mmbtu.
In the four weeks ended April 21, gasoline demand rose 3.9% from a year earlier after rising 3.6% y/y in the prior week. Demand for all petroleum products rose 2.2% y/y in the latest four weeks in contrast to the 14.4% annual growth at the end of 2021. Crude oil input to refineries held steady y/y but has been falling since January.
Gasoline inventories declined 4.2% y/y in the week ended April 21 compared to a 3.8% y/y decline in the prior week, while crude oil inventories fell 14.4% y/y. Inventories of distillate fuel oil rose 3.9% y/y, but residual crude oil inventories increased 15.6% y/y.
Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories in the week ended April 21 fell to 24.4 days from 24.9 days in the previous week. It was the lowest level since late-November. The supply of crude oil fell to 29.3 days from 29.7, still above its low of 25.3 days at the end of June 2022.
These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price data can be found in Haver’s WEEKLY database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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