U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Gasoline & diesel fuel prices continue to weaken.
- Crude oil prices fall to lowest since late-August.
- Natural gas prices rise.
Retail gasoline prices fell last week to an average $3.52 per gallon (-10.0% y/y) for all grades from $3.60 in the prior week. Prices have ranged between $3.20 and $5.11 for the last year. The retail price for on-highway diesel fuel declined to $4.37 per gallon (-18.1% y/y) last week from $4.45 in the prior week. The latest price is well above its low of $3.77 in early-July.
The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined to $81.62 per barrel (-8.4% y/y) in the week ended November 3 from an average of $84.94 per barrel in the prior week. These remained below the high of $91.45 in the last week of September but significantly above the late-June low of $69.37. Prices remain well below the high of $120.46 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $80.82 per barrel. Brent crude prices declined to $88.21 per barrel (-8.0% y/y) last week compared to $89.84 in the prior week. The recent low for Brent was $73.89 in the first week of June 2023 and the recent high was $127.40 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $87.31 per barrel.
Natural gas prices rose to an average $3.16/mmbtu (-30.7% y/y) in the week of November 3, 2023 after edging higher to $2.89 in the previous week. Prices reached a high of $9.56/mmbtu in the last week of August 2022 and a low of $1.93 in the first week of June. Yesterday, the price was $2.71 /mmbtu.
In the four weeks ended October 27, gasoline demand rose 1.6% from a year earlier after falling 2.7% y/y in the prior four-week period. Demand for all petroleum products rose 0.5% y/y after falling 0.8% y/y in the previous four weeks. Crude oil input to refineries fell 2.4% y/y in the latest four weeks, after declining 2.0% y/y in the prior period.
Gasoline inventories rose 8.2% y/y in the October 27 week after rising 7.5% y/y in the previous week. Residual fuel oil inventories fell 9.4% y/y after declining 8.9% y/y in the previous week. Crude oil inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, fell 7.6% y/y after an 8.2% decline in the prior week.
Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories in the week of October 27 stood at 25.5 days versus 26.0 days in the prior week. The recent high was 29.7 days in the third week of January and the recent low was 23.4 days in the last week of June. The supply of crude oil rose to 27.6 days. The recent high was 31.9 days at the beginning of March.
These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s WEEKLY & USENERGY databases.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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