U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Rise
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Gasoline prices continue to increase.
- Crude oil prices improve to highest level since late-April.
- Natural gas prices are little changed.
Retail gasoline prices improved last week to an average $3.71 per gallon (-16.4% y/y) for all grades from $3.68 in the week prior. Prices were at the highest level in six weeks and have been volatile over the last year, ranging between $3.20 and $5.11. The retail price for on-highway diesel fuel strengthened to $3.91 per gallon (-25.9% y/y) last week, up from $3.81 the previous week. Prices have ranged this past year between $3.79 per gallon and $5.81 per gallon.
The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil averaged $75.60 per barrel (-25.4% y/y) in the week ended July 21 versus $75.20 per barrel in the prior week. The latest price was the highest since the last week in April and compares to its recent low of $69.37 per barrel in the last week of June. Prices remained below their high of $120.46 per barrel in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $78.74 per barrel. Brent crude prices eased to $79.48 per barrel last week (-30.0% y/y) from $79.79. The recent low price for Brent was $73.55 in the last week of June, and the recent high was $127.40 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday’s price was $82.53 per barrel.
Natural gas prices averaged $2.54/mmbtu (-67.3% y/y) in the week of July 21 versus $2.53 in the prior week. The price has ranged between a low of $1.93 in the first week of June to $8.95 in the second week of June 2022. Yesterday, the price was $2.68/mmbtu.
In the four weeks ended July 14, gasoline demand rose 4.6% from a year earlier after increasing 6.1% y/y in the prior four-week period. Demand for all petroleum products increased 1.0% y/y versus 2.6% y/y in the prior week. Crude oil input to refineries fell 0.8% in the latest four weeks from a year ago.
Gasoline inventories fell 4.4% y/y in the July 14 week after a 2.4% y/y decline the prior week. Inventories of distillate fuel oil rose 5.1% in the latest week after 3.8% the week prior and residual fuel oil inventories improved 0.6% y/y after a 4.4% y/y rise in the prior week. Crude oil inventories including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve declined 11.3% y/y in the latest week after an 11.8% y/y decrease in the prior week.
Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories in the week of July 14 were 23.9 days, roughly the same as the prior week. The recent high was 29.7 days in the third week of January and the recent low was 23.4 days in the last week of May. The supply of crude oil as of July 14 was 27.9 days, down from 28.0 days in the prior week. The recent high was 31.9 days at the beginning of March.
These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s WEEKLY database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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