U.S. Government Budget Deficit Continues to Deepen Through January
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Personal income tax receipts pick up.
- Outlay growth remains strong.
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a U.S. government budget deficit of $839.6 billion for the first four months of FY 2025 in contrast to a $531.9 billion deficit for the first four months of FY’24. For January alone, the government ran a budget deficit of $128.6 billion, which compared to a deficit of $21.9 billion twelve months earlier. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a $58.0 billion deficit in January.
Overall revenues so far this fiscal year increased 0.7% y/y as individual income tax receipts rose 1.9% y/y. The level of corporate tax receipts fell 21.0% y/y so far this year. Social insurance revenues increased 3.8% y/y and excise taxes gained 22.5% y/y in FY’25. Customs duties rose 10.8% y/y in the first four months of FY’25.
Federal government outlays increased 15.1% y/y early in FY’25 versus a 9.5% rise early in FY’24. Defense spending rose 12.1% y/y, about as it did early in FY’24. Social Security outlays rose 6.5% y/y in the first four months of FY’25 after rising 10.6% y/y early in FY’24. Interest payments rose 13.8% y/y so far in FY’25 after a 45.9% rise a year earlier. Health program spending rose 9.7% y/y after easing 0.4% early in FY’24 while Medicare payments surged 46.5% y/y versus a 13.3% rise last year. Income security outlays rose 18.8% y/y early this year compared to a 28.5% y/y decline in the first four months of FY’24.
Haver's data on Federal Government receipts & outlays are contained in USECON. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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