U.S. Government Budget Deficit Increases in May
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Revenues decline sharply as personal tax receipts decline.
- Outlays surge with higher Medicare, Health & Social Security & Income Security payments.
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $240.3 billion during May compared to a deficit of $66.2 billion during May of last year. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a $236 billion deficit. For the first eight months of the current fiscal year, the federal government ran a budget deficit of $1.165 trillion versus a deficit of $426 billion over the same period last fiscal year.
Overall revenues have declined 11.3% so far during FY’23 versus the first eight months of last fiscal year. Individual income tax receipts fell 20.2% y/y. Corporate tax payments increased 4.9% y/y this fiscal year. Social insurance revenues rose 8.6% y/y but excise taxes fell 3.3% y/y so far in FY’23.
Federal government outlays have increased 9.4% y/y so far in FY’23. Social Security outlays rose 10.7% y/y while defense spending rose 7.2% y/y. Interest payments rose 36.3% so far in FY’23. Offsetting these increases, income security outlays fell 13.8% y/y this fiscal year and health program outlays fell 2.5% y/y.
Haver's data on Federal Government receipts & outlays are contained in USECON. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
An Update to the Budget Outlook: 2023 to 2033 from the Congressional Budget Office is available here.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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