U.S. Housing Affordability Index Is Little Changed in June
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Median sales prices continue to move up to record highs.
- Mortgage rates ease following four months of increase.
- Median family income growth remains strong.
- Affordability is highest in the Midwest and lowest in the West.
The National Association of Realtors' Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index (HAI) eased 0.2% (-0.4% y/y) in June to 93.3 after falling 2.7% in May to 93.5 and 5.0% in April. It was the lowest affordability level since last October. The level of home affordability has plunged 47.9% from a peak of 179.0 in April 2020.
The decline in affordability was due to a 2.4% rise (4.1% y/y) in the median price of an existing single-family home to $432,700. It was the fifth straight month of strong increase. The rise lifted the principal & interest payment by 1.0% (6.3% y/y) to $2,303, a record high. That was increased from the most recent low of $984 in February 2020. Monthly mortgage payments averaged 26.8% of income during June, up from a recent low of 14.0% in April 2020.
The rise in housing costs was accompanied by strength in median family income which increased 0.8% in June (5.9% y/y) to a record $103,172 after rising 0.7% in May. The average mortgage rate paid was 7.00%, down from its October 2023 high of 7.7%, but up sharply from the November 2021 low of 3.12%.
Housing affordability was mixed m/m across the country. The affordability index fell 6.9% (-6.5% y/y) in the Northeast to 84.3. The index eased 0.9% (-1.7% y/y) to 119.2 in the Midwest, the most affordable region of the country to live. In the South, the index rose 2.3% (+2.2% y/y) to 97.9 and in the West, where homes are the least affordable, the index rose 2.7% (0.9% y/y) to 68.6.
The Housing Affordability Index (HAI) equals 100 when a median-income borrower qualifies for an 80% mortgage on a median-priced existing single-family home. The HAI had exceeded 100 in each month since July 1990 and reached its all-time high of 213.3 in January 2013; since then, it fell below 100 for the first time in June 2022 (98.8).
Data on Housing Affordability can be found in Haver’s REALTOR database. Median home sales prices are also available in USECON. Higher frequency interest rate data are found in SURVEYS, WEEKLY, and DAILY.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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