U.S. Housing Starts Rebound in August
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Surprising increase reflects a jump in multi-family units.
- Regional changes are mixed.
- Building permits fall sharply.
New residential construction activity during August recovered all of its July decline. Total housing starts rose 12.2% (-0.1% y/y) last month to 1.575 million units (SAAR) after falling to 1.404 million units in July, revised from 1.446 million. Starts in June of 1.575 million were revised from 1.599 million. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected 1.45 million starts in August.
Leading last month's increase were multi-family starts. They surged 28.0% (33.1% y/y) to 640,000 following an 11.0% July decline. The latest level of multi-family starts was the highest since April 1986. Single-family starts rose 3.4% in August (-14.5% y/y) to 935,000 following five consecutive monthly declines.
Housing starts were mixed regionally. In the South, housing starts rose 24.5% (-0.3% y/y) to 885,000 following an 18.7% July decline. Starts in the Midwest strengthened 19.3% in August (-14.8% y/y) to 167,000 following a 32.0% July drop. Starts in the West rose 1.1% (10.7% y/y) to 361,000 after falling 2.7% in July. Moving lower last month were starts in the Northeast by 17.3% (-2.4% y/y) to 162,000 after surging 54.3% in July.
Building permits fell 10.0% (-14.4% y/y) to 1.517 million in August, the fourth decline in the last five months. Permits were at the lowest level since June 2020. Single-family permits weakened 3.5% (-15.3% y/y) to 899,000, the sixth consecutive monthly decline. Multi-family permits weakened 17.9% (-13.1% y/y) to 618,000, the lowest level in nine months.
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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