U.S. Import Prices Edge Higher in November; Export Prices Are Unchanged
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Import price gain is driven by oil & food.
- Weakness in export prices is broad-based.
Import prices increased 0.1% (1.3% y/y) during November after rising 0.1% in October, revised from 0.3%. A 0.4% September decline was unrevised. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.2% decline. Export prices held steady (+0.8% y/y) after strengthening 1.0% in October, revised from 0.8%. Prices rose an unrevised 1.0% during September. A 0.2% weakening had been expected.
Import prices excluding fuels were unchanged (+2.3% y/y) in November, following a 0.2% rise in October. Import prices for fuels & lubricants jumped 1.0% (-8.5% y/y), following a 0.5% weakening. Prices for industrial supplies & materials overall rose 0.2% (0.4% y/y) after rising 0.5% in October. Foods, feeds & beverage prices strengthened 1.3% (5.4% y/y) last month after a 1.0% October decline. Motor vehicle & parts import prices eased 0.1% (+2.4% y/y) last month following a 0.2% rise. Nonauto consumer goods prices inched up 0.1% (1.2% y/y) for the third consecutive month. Capital goods prices eased 0.1% (+0.8% y/y) and reversed the September rise.
Export pricing was lackluster in November. Agricultural commodities eased 0.4% (-2.5% y/y) after a 1.9% October rise. Nonagricultural product prices edged up 0.1% (1.2% y/y) following a 0.8% increase. Export prices of industrial supplies and materials eased 0.1% (+0.1% y/y) after rising 1.8% in the prior month. Motor vehicle & parts prices held steady (+3.0% y/y) last month after increasing 0.6% in October. Nonauto consumer goods prices declined 0.1% (-0.6% y/y) following a 0.2% slip. Capital goods prices edged 0.1% higher in November (2.1% y/y) after a 0.3% rise in October.
Each of these monthly trade price numbers are not seasonally adjusted. The import and export price series can be found in Haver’s USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.