U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Edge Down in March 9 Week
Summary
- Annual revisions lower initial claims modestly.
- Continuing claims up moderately in Feb. 24 week.
- Insured unemployment rate steady for a whole year.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased to 209,000, seasonally adjusted in the week ended March 9 (-5.4% y/y) from 210,000 the week before. The earlier week was revised from 217,000. All the seasonally adjusted data are revised with the annual revisions to seasonal factors which were implemented with this report. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected 219,000 this week; that was based on the pre-revision seasonal adjustment pattern. The new data show that the four-week moving average of initial claims was 208,000 in the March 9 period, down from 208,500 in the prior period.
Insured unemployment, also known as continued weeks claimed, was 1.811 million in the week ended March 2 (+8.8% y/y), up from 1.794 million in week ended February 24. The four-week moving average in the March 2 week was 1.799 million, up slightly from 1.797 million the prior week.
The insured unemployment rate represents the number of insured unemployment as a percent of covered employment. In the March 2 week, this rate was 1.2%, where it has been continuously since March 11, 2023.
Insured rates of unemployment vary widely by state and territory. In the week ended February 24, the highest rates were in Rhode Island (3.07%), New Jersey (2.87%), Massachusetts (2.55%), Minnesota (2.45%) and California (2.41%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.39%), Kansas (0.41%), Virginia (0.42%), North Carolina (0.44%) and Alabama (0.46%). Rates in other major states include Illinois (2.20%), New York (2.19%), Pennsylvania (2.02%) and Ohio and Texas (both 1.06%).
Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They go back to 1967 and are contained in Haver’s WEEKLY database and summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the AS1REPNA database.
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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