U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Were Little Changed in Latest Week

Initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased by 1,000 to 205,000 (-13.9% y/y) during the week ended January 7 from the previous week’s level of 206,000, revised from 204,000. A level of 214,000 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

The 4-week moving average of initial claims was 212,500, a decrease of 1,750 from the previous week’s average of 214,250, revised from 213,750. It remained well below an early-August high of 249,500 but also well above an early-April low of 170,500.

In the week ended December 31, continued weeks claimed for unemployment insurance dropped 63,000 to 1.634 million (-8.1% y/y) from 1,697 million in the prior week, revised from 1.694 million. The 4-week moving average was 1.680 million, a decrease of 8,750 from the previous week’s 1.688 million.

The insured unemployment rate in the week ended December 31 edged down to 1.1% from 1.2% the prior week. The insured unemployment rate has held consistently in the range of 1.0% to 1.2% since October. It had been as low as 0.9% between May and July.

In the week ended December 24, the total number of continued weeks claimed in all unemployment insurance programs was 1.734 million, (-11.0% y/y) up from 1.602 million the week prior. This total includes federal employees, newly discharged veterans, extended benefits, and other specialized programs and is not seasonally adjusted. Claims in the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation are no longer included in the main Labor Department press release, as both programs have expired.

The insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary across states. The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending December 17 were in Alaska (2.26%), Minnesota (2.19%), New Jersey (2.22%), California (1.97%), Montana (2.01%), Rhode Island (1.98%), Massachusetts (1.91%), Puerto Rico (1.86%), Washington (1.76%), Illinois (1.73%), and New York (1.75%). The lowest rates were in Virginia (0.26%), Alabama (0.31%), Kansas (0.38%), North Carolina (0.38%), and New Hampshire (0.39%). Other state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs include Pennsylvania (1.52%), Texas (0.95%) and Florida (0.45%). These state rates are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.