U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Ease Moderately in August 3 Week
Summary
- Initial claims lower than forecast consensus.
- Gradual uptrend in total beneficiaries continues.
- Insured unemployment rate extends 1.2% through a 16th month.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased to 233,000, seasonally adjusted, in the week ended August 3 from 250,000 the prior week; that earlier number is revised slightly from 249,000 reported last week. The latest week is fairly close to expectations, indicated by the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which looked for 240,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims was 240,750, up from 238,250 the week before.
The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries, known as “insured unemployment” or “continuing claims,” was 1.875 million in week ended July 27, up from 1.869 million in the July 20 week. The earlier amount was revised from 1.877 million reported before. The four-week moving average of insured unemployment was 1.862 million in the July 27 week, up from 1.855 million the prior week.
The insured unemployment rate, that is, the number of insured unemployment beneficiaries as a percent of total covered employment, remained at 1.2% in the July 27 week. This rate has been at that amount steadily since March 11, 2023.
Economic conditions vary widely across individual states and territories, as shown by the insured unemployment rates. In the week ended July 20, the highest rates were in New Jersey (2.75%), Rhode Island (2.62%), Puerto Rico (2.43%), California (2.26%) and Minnesota (2.01%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.28%), Virginia (0.44%), Florida (0.45%), North Carolina and Kentucky (each 0.47%) and Kansas (0.48%). Rates in other notable states include Pennsylvania (1.85%), Illinois (1.68%), New York (1.68%), Texas (1.31%) and Ohio (0.89%).
Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s WEEKLY database and summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the AS1REPNA database.
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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