U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims on a Steady Uptrend
Summary
- Initial claims rose 14,000 in the week ended July 27.
- Continuing claims rose 33,000 in the week ended July 20.
- Insured unemployment rate holds steady.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 249,000 during the week ended July 27, up from an unrevised level of 235,000 during the week ended July 20. First-time claims have been trending higher since a low of 194,000 in the second week of January. The latest week’s figure compares to 236,000 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four-week moving average of initial claims inched up to 238,000 from 235,500 in the prior week. This average has risen from a low of 200,750 in early-January.
Insured unemployment, also known as continuing claims, rose to 1.877 million in the week ended July 20, from 1.844 million in the week ended July 13, revised from 1.851 million. This is the highest level of insured unemployment since November 27, 2021 when it was 1.878 million. The four-week moving average rose to 1.857 million in the week ended July 20 from 1.852 million the week prior. This is the highest level for this average since December 4, 2021, when it was 1.860 million.
The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2% in the week of July 20. This figure is the number of continued weeks claimed as a percent of covered employment. It has been steady at that level since the week of March 11, 2023.
Economic conditions vary widely across individual states and territories, as shown by the insured unemployment rates. In the week ended July 13, the highest rates were in New Jersey (2.74%), Rhode Island (2.62%), Puerto Rico (2.44%), California (2.25%), Minnesota (2.01%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.30%), Florida (0.43%), Virginia (0.44%), North Carolina (0.46%), and Kansas (0.50%). Other notable states include Ohio (0.86%), Texas (1.14%), Illinois (1.69%), New York (1.71%) and Pennsylvania (1.85%).
Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s WEEKLY database and summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the AS1REPNA database.
Kathleen Stephansen, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Kathleen Stephansen is a Senior Economist for Haver Analytics and an Independent Trustee for the EQAT/VIP/1290 Trust Funds, encompassing the US mutual funds sponsored by the Equitable Life Insurance Company. She is a former Chief Economist of Huawei Technologies USA, Senior Economic Advisor to the Boston Consulting Group, Chief Economist of the American International Group (AIG) and AIG Asset Management’s Senior Strategist and Global Head of Sovereign Research. Prior to joining AIG in 2010, Kathleen held various positions as Chief Economist or Head of Global Research at Aladdin Capital Holdings, Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin and Jenrette Securities Corporation.
Kathleen serves on the boards of the Global Interdependence Center (GIC), as Vice-Chair of the GIC College of Central Bankers, is the Treasurer for Economists for Peace and Security (EPS) and is a former board member of the National Association of Business Economics (NABE). She is a member of Chatham House and the Economic Club of New York. She holds an undergraduate degree in economics from the Universite Catholique de Louvain and graduate degrees in economics from the University of New Hampshire (MA) and the London School of Economics (PhD abd).
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