U.S. Mortgage Applications Edge Down in March 15 Week After a Notable Increase the Week Before
Summary
- Applications for both purchase loans and refinancing eased in latest week.
- Rates rise modestly in March 15 week for nearly all major types of loans.
- Shares of refinance loans and of ARMs both down slightly in latest week.
The market index for mortgage applications eased 1.6% (-10.3% y/y) in the week ended March 15 after increasing 7.1% the week ended March 8 and 9.7% the week before that. Applications for loans to purchase a house decreased 1.2% (-13.8% y/y) in the March 15 week after rising 4.7% the previous week, and applications to refinance a loan decreased 2.5% (-2.7% y/y) in the March 15 week after a notable 12.2% increase the prior week. These data are from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey.
The effective rate on a 30-year fixed rate loan was 7.16% in the March 15 week, up from 7.03% the prior week. The rate on a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.66% in the March 15 week, up from 6.57% the week before. The effective rate on a 30-year Jumbo loan was 7.29% in the latest week, up from 7.15% the prior week, while the rate on a 5-year ARM inched down to 6.53% in the March 15 week after decreasing 5 basis points to 6.57% the week before. These rates were all up modestly from recent lows in late December and early January, but down more markedly from highs in mid-October, for example, the 30-year fixed-rate loan rate, currently 7.16%, is down from 8.12% the week of October 20.
The share of applications to refinance an existing mortgage was 31.2% in the March 15 week, slightly smaller than the 31.6% the prior week; the current share of refis is down from 39.7% the week ended December 15. The share of loans that are ARMs was 7.2% in the March 15 week, down somewhat from 7.7% the week before. The recent range for the ARMs share runs from 5.4% the week of January 5 to that 7.7%; larger amounts still were in the week of October 27, 10.7%, and the week of October 14, 2022, 12.8%.
In the week of March 15, the average loan size was $389,800, down marginally from $390,700 the week before. The average size of a purchase loan was $445,000 in the latest week, up just 0.2% from $444,300 the prior week. The average size of a loan to refinance an existing mortgage was $267,900 in the March 15 week, down from $274,000 the week before.
The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s SURVEYS database.
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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