U.S. New Home Sales Improve in March; Prices Weaken
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Sales rise to highest level in six months.
- Changes in sales are mixed across the country.
- Median sales price falls to four-month low.
New single-family home sales increased 7.4% (6.0% y/y) to 724,000 (SAAR) during March after increasing 3.1% in February to 674,000, revised from 676,000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected sales of 686,000. The sales rise in March occurred as the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to an average 6.65% last month from 6.84% in February, according to Freddie Mac. It compares to a low of 6.18% averaged in September.
By region, home sales varied across the country last month. New home sales in the Northeast declined 22.2% (-33.3% y/y) to 28,000 in March, after rising 33.3% in February. Sales in the Midwest rose 3.0% (-15.9% y/y) to 69,000, after rising 8.1% in February. In the South, new home sales increased 13.6% (22.3% y/y) to 483,000, following a 7.6% February rise. New home sales in the West declined 1.4% (-12.2% y/y) to 144,000, after falling 14.1% in February.
The median sales price of a new home fell 1.9% (-7.5% y/y) to $403,600 in March after falling 4.6% to $411,500 in February. The average sales price of a new home improved 1.0% (-4.7% y/y) to $497,700 in March, following a 3.6% February decline. The average price was 8.0% below a high of $541,200 in July 2022. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.
The number of unsold new homes on the market rose 0.6% (7.9% y/y) to 503,000 in March, after a 0.8% February increase. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale fell to 8.3 months in March after falling to 8.9 months in February. The latest reading remained above a low of 6.9 months in May 2023.
The median number of months a new home stayed on the market increased to 3.1 months in March, up from a June 2024 low of 2.1 months. It was the highest level since April 2022. The latest number stood well above its record low of 1.5 months in both September and October of 2022, but remained below a high of 5.1 months in March 2021. These figures date back to January 1975.
New home sales are recorded when the sales contract is signed. New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
