U.S. New Home Sales Plunge in October; Lowest Level Since November ’22
Summary
- October sales -17.3% m/m (-9.4% y/y) to 610,000, the second m/m drop in three mths.; Sept. level number unrevised at 738,000.
- Sales down m/m and y/y in the South and West but up m/m and y/y in the Northeast and Midwest.
- Median sales price rises to $437,300, the highest since August ’23; average sales price jumps to a record-high $545,800.
- Months' supply of new homes for sale rises to 9.5 months, a two-year high.
New single-family home sales plunged 17.3% m/m (-9.4% y/y) to 610,000 units at an annual rate in October following a 7.0% gain to 738,000 in September (+4.1%, 738,000 initially) and a 2.4% drop to 690,000 in August (-2.3%, 709,000 previously), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. The October level reading was the lowest since November 2022. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected new home sales of 723,000 for October. New home sales, while up 17.5% from the 519,000 low in July 2022, had fallen 40.8% from their peak of 1.031 million in October 2020. The plunge in October sales accompanied a rise in the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to 6.43% in October from 6.18% in September. It had since risen to 6.84% in the November 21 week, according to Freddie Mac.
By region, month-on-month new home sales fell in October in two of four major regions. Sales in the South slumped 27.7% (-19.7% y/y) to 339,000 in October, the first m/m drop since July to the lowest level since April 2020, after a 7.6% rise to 469,000 in September. Sales in the West fell 9.0% (-1.3% y/y) to 152,000, the second m/m fall in three months to the lowest level since May, following a 5.0% September increase to 167,000. To the upside, sales in the Northeast jumped 53.3% (35.3% y/y) to 46,000 in October, the fourth m/m advance in five months to the highest level since January, after a 42.9% rebound to 30,000 in September. Sales in the Midwest rose 1.4% (15.9% y/y) to 73,000, the first m/m rise since July, after a 2.7% September decline to 72,000. Notably, despite the October m/m slump in the South, the region still posted the largest level figure (339,000) for new home sales among the four regions.
The median sales price of a new home rose 2.5% (4.7% y/y) to $437,300 in October after a 5.2% rebound to $426,800 in September, registering the third m/m rise in four months to the highest level since August 2023. The median sales price, however, had fallen 5.0% since its October 2022 peak of $460,300. The average sales price of a new home advanced 7.0% (9.4% y/y) to a record-high $545,800 in October, up for the third month in four, on top of a 6.9% September gain to $509,900. The average price was 0.8% above a high of $541,200 in July 2022. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.
The number of unsold new homes on the market rose 2.1% (8.8% y/y) to 481,000 in October, the highest level since January 2008, after holding steady m/m at 471,000 in September. The latest figure was 3.2% above a high of 466,000 in October 2022. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale rose to 9.5 months in October, the highest since October 2022, after falling to 7.7 months in September. It was up from 7.9 months in October 2023 and a low of 6.9 months in May 2023.
The median number of months a new home stayed on the market increased to 2.6 months in October, the highest since March, after rising to 2.5 months in September. The latest reading was up from 2.5 months in October 2023 and the record low of 1.5 months in both September and October of 2022 but down from a high of 5.1 months in March 2021. These figures date back to January 1975.
New home sales are recorded when the sales contract is signed. New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the AS1REPNA database.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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