U.S. Retail Sales Advance Strongly in July; Earlier Estimates Raised
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Sales of core goods are firmest in six months.
- Online buying surges again.
- Vehicle sales ease after three months of strong gains.
Retail sales jumped 0.7% (3.2% y/y) during July following a 0.3% June gain, revised from 0.2%. May’s increase was revised to 0.7% from 0.5%. The July gain exceeded expectations for a 0.4% increase in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales excluding motor vehicles & parts jumped 1.0% in July (2.2% y/y), the strongest reading since January. The 0.2% June increase was unrevised but May’s gain was revised to 0.4% from 0.3%. A July increase of 0.4% in nonauto sales had been expected.
Sales in the retail group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline & restaurants, rose 1.0% last month (5.0% y/y) after increasing 0.5% in June, revised from 0.6%. May’s increase was doubled to 0.6%.
Last month’s overall sales gain was led by a 1.9% surge (10.3% y/y) in nonstore retail sales which followed a downwardly revised 1.5% May increase. Online sales rose 1.2% in both April & May. Sporting goods, hobby shop, book & music store sales strengthened 1.5% in July (1.0% y/y) on the heels of a 0.5% decline. Apparel store sales jumped 1.0% (2.2% y/y) after easing slightly in June. General merchandise store sales grew 0.8% (2.5% y/y) after holding fairly steady in June. Department store sales grew 0.9% (-3.4% y/y) after declining 2.3% in June. Sales of building materials & garden equipment improved 0.7% (-3.3% y/y) after June’s decline of 1.5%. Gasoline service station sales rose 0.4% (-20.8% y/y) after falling 1.3% in June.
Working lower, furniture & home furnishing store sales declined 1.8% in July (-6.3% y/y) after they rose 1.4% in June. Also showing weakness were electronics & appliance store sales which fell 1.3% (-3.1% y/y) after a 0.7% June increase. Motor vehicle sales eased 0.3% (+7.6% y/y) in July after a 0.7% June gain. That compared to a 0.6% increase in unit vehicle sales reported earlier.
In the nondiscretionary sales categories, food & beverage store sales rose 0.8% in July (2.5% y/y) after falling 0.4% in June. Health & personal care store sales rose 0.7% (8.1% y/y) last month after edging 0.1% higher in June.
Consumer spending at restaurants & drinking places improved 1.4% last month (11.9% y/y) after rising 0.8% in June.
Retail Sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in AS1REPNA.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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