U.S. Consumer Credit Surges in December
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Revolving credit posts record rise.
- Nonrevolving credit strengthens.
Consumer credit outstanding ballooned $40.8 billion during December after falling $5.4 billion in November, revised from a $7.5 billion drop. October’s rise was little changed at $17.4 billion. A $12.3 billion rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During all of last year, consumer credit rose 2.4% y/y following a 2.6% rise in 2023. As a percentage of disposable personal income, consumer credit was 23.3% in December, down from 23.9% in December 2023.
In December, revolving credit, which includes credit cards, surged $22.9 billion (4.8% y/y), following a $13.8 billion November decline. Revolving credit outstanding held by depository institutions rose 5.2% y/y. Revolving credit held by finance companies fell 12.2% y/y while that held by credit unions rose 4.4% y/y.
Nonrevolving credit outstanding rose $18.0 billion (1.6% y/y) in December after an $8.5 billion in November rise. Nonrevolving credit held by depository institutions eased 0.2% y/y in December. Finance company debt holdings rose 2.6% y/y. Credit union holdings eased 2.3% y/y in December.
Student loans totaled $1.8 trillion in Q4, up by 2.8% y/y. Motor vehicle loans grew 0.9% y/y to $1.6 trillion.
The consumer credit figures from the Federal Reserve Board are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. The breaks in the series in 2005, 2010 and 2015 are the result of the incorporation of data from the Census and the Survey of Finance Companies, as well as changes in the seasonal adjustment methodology. The consumer credit data are available in Haver’s USECON database. The Action Economics forecast figures are contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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