U.S. Retail Sales Firm in September
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Sales of core goods pick up.
- Online buying strengthens.
- Gasoline sales rise with higher prices.
Retail sales increased 0.7% (3.8% y/y) during September following a 0.8% August rise, revised from 0.6%. July sales rose 0.6%, revised from 0.5%. A 0.2% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales excluding motor vehicles & parts improved 0.6% last month (3.2% y/y) after increasing 0.9% in August, revised from 0.6%. The 0.8% July increase was revised from 0.7%. A 0.2% increase had been expected.
Sales in the retail group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline & restaurants, rose 0.6% (3.8% y/y) following a 0.2% August rise, revised from 0.1%. The July increase was revised to 0.8% from 0.7%.
Last month’s overall sales increase was led by a 1.1% rise (8.4% y/y) in online sales which followed a 0.4% August increase. Motor vehicle & parts sales rose 1.0% (6.2% y/y) after increasing 0.4% in August. The September increase compares to a 1.6% rise in unit sales of autos & light trucks. Gasoline service station sales increased 0.9% (-3.5% y/y) after rising 6.7%. General merchandise store sales rose 0.4% (2.0% y/y), the same as in August. Within that category, department store sales held steady (-4.7% y/y) after a 0.3% gain. Sales of sporting goods, hobby shop, book & music stores were fairly steady (-2.1% y/y) after falling 2.0% in August.
Working lower, sales of electronics & appliance stores declined 0.8% (-2.2% y/y) last month after a 1.2% August gain. Clothing & accessory store sales weakened 0.8% (+0.1% y/y) after increasing 0.7% in August. Building materials & garden equipment eased 0.2% in September (-4.0% y/y) after a 0.6% gain. Furniture & home furnishings store were little changed (-5.9% y/y) after falling in both of the prior two months.
In the nondiscretionary sales categories, food & beverage store sales gained 0.4% in September (1.6% y/y) after rising 0.3% in August. Health & personal care store sales rose 0.8% (8.3% y/y) last month after a 1.1% August gain.
Consumer spending at restaurants & drinking places rose 0.9% last month (9.2% y/y) after rising 0.4% in August.
Retail Sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in AS1REPNA.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
