U.S. Retail Sales Rise for the Fifth Time in Six Months in June
Summary
• June +1.0%, slightly higher than expected; May revised up to -0.1%.
• Ex-auto sales rise for six consecutive months.
• Auto sales rebound 0.8%; May revised up to -3.0%.
• Sales gain in most categories except for sales in building materials & garden equipt. stores, clothing & accessory stores, and general merchandise stores.
• Despite four-decade-high inflation and falling real incomes, consumers continue spending; restaurant & drinking place sales rise for five straight months.
Total retail sales rose 1.0% m/m (8.4% y/y) in June after a 0.1% downtick (-0.3% initially) in May and a 0.7% gain in April, according to the Census Bureau. The June rise was the fifth m/m gain in six months. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.8% m/m rise for June.
Excluding motor vehicles & parts, retail sales rose 1.0% (10.6% y/y), the sixth straight m/m rise, on top of a 0.6% gain (+0.5% initially). A 0.6% increase had been expected. Sales of motor vehicles & parts grew 0.8% (-0.0% y/y) following a 3.0% decline (-3.5% initially).
Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, gas stations, building materials & food services, increased 0.8% (6.8% y/y) in June, the fifth m/m rise in six months, after being virtually unchanged in May. These sales are used in the construction of personal consumption expenditures in NIPA accounts. Nonauto sales excluding gasoline & building materials rose 0.8% (5.3% y/y) following a 0.3% May decline and four straight m/m rises.
Sales by category mostly gained in June. Gasoline station sales rose 3.6% (49.1% y/y) due mostly to higher prices after a 5.6% May rebound, registering the fourth m/m rise in five months. Nonstore retail sales gained 2.2% (9.6% y/y), reversing a 1.0% decrease. Furniture & home furnishing store sales recovered 1.4% (4.6% y/y) following a 0.6% decline. Sporting goods store sales grew 0.8% (2.7% y/y), the fifth successive m/m advance, after a 0.4% increase. Electronics & appliance store sales rebounded 0.4% (-9.1% y/y), the fifth m/m gain in six months, after a 1.6% drop. Building materials & garden equipment store sales, however, slid 0.9% (+6.4% y/y), the third straight monthly fall, after a 0.2% easing. Clothing & accessory store sales fell 0.4% (-0.2% y/y) on top of a 1.1% decline. General merchandise store sales eased 0.2% (+1.5% y/y) vs. a 0.2% rebound.
In the nondiscretionary sales categories, food & beverage store sales rose 0.4% (7.1% y/y) in June after a 1.0% increase in May. Health & personal care store sales dipped 0.1% (-0.6% y/y) following a 0.8% May decline and two consecutive m/m increases.
Consumers continue to eat out despite high inflation and lower real incomes. Restaurant & drinking place sales rose 1.0% (13.4% y/y) in June after a 0.9% increase in May, registering the fifth straight monthly gain.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
More Economy in Brief
