U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Improve During November
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Online buying strengthens.
- General merchandise sales ease.
- Gasoline sales continue to decline with lower prices.
Consumer spending increased last month as job growth continued. Retail sales rose 0.3% (4.1% y/y) during November following a 0.2% October decline, revised from -0.1%. The 0.8% September rise was revised from 0.9%. A 0.1% November easing had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales excluding motor vehicles & parts improved 0.2% last month (3.6% y/y) after little change in October, revised from a 0.1% uptick. A 0.1% easing in November sales had been expected.
Showing greater improvement, sales in the retail group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline & restaurants, increased 0.4% (4.9% y/y) after no change in October, revised from a 0.2% gain. September’s 0.8% rise was revised from 0.7%.
Last month’s overall sales increase reflected a 0.5% rise (6.1% y/y) in motor vehicle sales which came after 1.1% October drop. The rise compared to no change m/m in unit motor vehicle sales. Online buying also was strong and rose 1.0% (10.6% y/y) as it followed a 0.3% dip. Clothing store sales increased 0.6% (1.3% y/y) after a 0.2% decline. Sporting goods, hobby shop, book & music store sales jumped 1.3% (0.2% y/y) after a 0.2% October decline. Furniture & home furnishing store sales increased 0.9% (-7.3% y/y), which came after a 2.2 % October weakening.
Offsetting these gains, electronics & appliance store sales fell 1.1% (+12.0% y/y) and reversed October’s 1.1% increase. General merchandise store sales weakened 0.2% (+1.1% y/y), the same as they did in October, while department store sales tumbled 2.5% (-5.2% y/y), the third straight month of sharp decline. Building materials sales fell 0.4% last month (-2.5% y/y), also off for the third consecutive month. Gasoline service station sales fell 2.9% (-9.4% y/y) with lower prices after falling 1.2% in October.
Sales were firm in the nondiscretionary sales categories. Health & personal care store sales surged 0.9% (10.9% y/y) last month after a 1.6% October rise. Food & beverage store sales gained 0.2% in November (0.4% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick in October.
Consumer spending at restaurants & drinking places strengthened 1.6% last month (11.3% y/y) after rising 0.6% in October.
Retail Sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in AS1REPNA.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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