U.S. Federal Government Runs Budget Surplus in January
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Revenues surge with stronger employment.
- Outlays fall with lessened income security payments.
- Interest payments surge.
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget surplus of $118.7 billion during January 2022 compared to a $162.8 billion deficit in January 2021. The last monthly budget surplus occurred in August 2019. Receipts declined 4.4% last month (+20.9% y/y) from December while outlays fell 31.8% (-36.7% y/y). Consensus expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey had been for a $35 billion surplus in January. So far in FY'22, the deficit has totaled $259.0 billion versus $735.7 billion in the first four months of FY'21.
Overall revenues have increased 27.7% y/y so far in FY'22. Individual income tax receipts increased 42.5% y/y as employment levels continued to rise. Corporate tax payments rose 31.5% as business earnings improved. Social insurance taxes rose 7.9% y/y and customs duties improved 34.6% y/y.
Federal government outlays have declined 7.7% year-to-date in FY'22. Income security payments declined 36.7% so far this year because of the absence of economic stimulus checks, which had been issued in 2021. National defense outlays declined 1.6% y/y so far in FY'22. Strengthening 54.2% y/y were education, training, employment & social services outlays. Outlays on health programs rose 18.8% y/y in the first four months of FY'22. Social Security outlays rose 4.7% so far this fiscal year and veteran benefits rose 8.7% y/y so far in FY'22. Medicare outlays rose 2.2% y/y so far this fiscal year. Interest payments have increased 21.1% y/y so far in FY'22.
Haver's data on Federal Government receipts & outlays are contained in USECON. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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