Tom Moeller

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The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index increased 1.5% during March (19.0% y/y) following a 1.9% February increase, revised from 2.1%. The FHFA indicated, "Strong demand coupled with tight supply have kept prices climbing. Through the end of March, higher mortgage rates have not yet translated into slower price gains." The home price series dates back to January 1991.

Pricing increases were most pronounced in the Mountain (24.7% y/y), South Atlantic (22.9% y/y), East South Central (21.4% y/y) and Pacific (19.7% y/y) regions.

Strength also was seen in the West South Central (18.6% y/y), New England (16.9% y/y), East North Central (15.4% y/y), Middle Atlantic (15.2% y/y) and West North Central (14.9%) regions.

The FHFA house price index is a weighted purchase-only index that measures average price changes in repeat sales of the same property. An associated quarterly index includes refinancings on the same kinds of properties. The indexes are based on transactions involving conforming conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Only mortgage transactions on single-family properties are included.

The FHFA data are available in Haver's **USECON** database.

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- House prices rise to another record level.
- Strength is broad-based regionally.

U.S. FHFA House Price Index Shows Continued Strength in March

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Job openings increased 372,000 (-10.8% y/y) during October to 7.744 million after falling 489,000 in September, revised from a 418,000 decline, and rising 150,000 in August according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The number of job openings has been trending downward since early-2022 and the latest reading stands well below the peak of 12.182 million reached in March 2022. The job openings rate improved to 4.6% from 4.4% in September. It remains well below a high of 7.4% in March 2022. This rate is calculated as the ratio of job openings to total nonfarm employment plus openings.

Private sector openings surged 367,000 in October (-11.0% y/y) to 6.868 million after falling 411,000 in September. The private sector job openings rate rose to 4.8% from 4.6% in September. It is down from 5.4% twelve months earlier and 7.9% at its peak in March 2022. The level of leisure & hospitality openings rose 13.1% (-7.2% y/y) while information openings surged 71.9% (84.1% y/y). Private educational & health service openings edged 0.5% higher (-16.7% y/y) and financial sector openings improved 4.0% (8.8% y/y). Trade, transportation & utilities openings declined 2.7% (-26.8% y/y) while openings in professional & business services rose 14.5% (4.1% y/y). Manufacturing job openings weakened 2.7% (-19.3% y/y) while construction openings fell 3.5% (-39.7% y/y). Mining & logging openings rose 7.7% (16.7% y/y). Government sector openings improved 0.6% (-9.4% y/y).

Private sector hiring declined 5.2% in October (-8.9% y/y) to 4.947 million after rising 3.0% in September. The private sector hiring rate fell to 3.6% and compared to 4.1% twelve months earlier. It has been trending lower from its 7.1% high in May 2020. Leisure and hospitality hiring fell 11.9% in October (-19.0% y/y). Financial sector hiring fell 12.2% (-9.2% y/y) and the number of professional & business services jobs weakened 7.4% (-11.8% y/y). Trade, transportation & utilities hiring improved 2.6% (-4.4% y/y) while private educational & health services jobs eased 0.3% (-2.8% y/y). Information sector hiring weakened 11.4% (+40.0% y/y). Construction sector hiring dropped 12.5% (-23.1% y/y) and factory sector hiring fell 5.9% (-10.6% y/y). Government hiring rose 1.4% (-4.9% y/y) in October, including a 2.7% rise (-1.7% y/y) in the number of state & local jobs.

Total job separations rose 1.3% (-6.6% y/y) to 5.261 million in October after rising 0.5% in September. The separation rate was 3.3% for the third straight month, down from 3.6% twelve months earlier. Private sector separations rose 1.3% (-7.1% y/y) after a 0.8% September increase. Manufacturing sector separations were off 8.6% (-8.1% y/y) while construction sector separations dropped 16.8% (-26.1% y/y). Trade, transportation & utilities separations rose 6.8% (-5.4% y/y) while leisure & hospitality separations eased 0.1% (-15.0% y/y). Government sector job separations rose 0.6% (2.6% y/y).

Private sector layoffs declined 10.4% to 1.548 million (-1.4% y/y) in October, led by a 39.1% falloff (-41.3% y/y) in the leisure & hospitality sector. Financial sector layoffs declined 1.8% (-9.5% y/y). Trade, transportation & utilities layoffs rose 17.0% (27.6% y/y) last month. Government layoffs increased 13.3% and were up 2.4% y/y. The private sector layoff rate overall eased to 1.1% after increasing to 1.3% in September. The government sector layoff rate rose to 0.4%. Private sector quits jumped 7.9% to 3.148 million (-8.8% y/y). Government quits fell 1.1% to 179,000 (-1.1% y/y). The private sector quits rate rose to 2.3% from 2.2% but remained down from a high of 3.3% in April 2022.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

- Openings reverse most of September’s falloff, but downward trend remains in place.
- Hiring decline reverses most of increase over previous three months.
- Job separations rate levels off near four-year low, but private sector layoffs drop.

U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Increase in October While Hiring Declines

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The ISM Purchasing Managers Index of activity in the manufacturing sector rose to 48.4 during November from 46.5 in October and 47.2 in September. It was the highest level since June, though still below the break-even level of 50.3 reached in March. A level of 47.5 for November had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Performance of the component indexes was mixed last month. The new orders measure rose to 50.4 from 47.1. It was the highest level since March. Twenty-one percent (NSA) of survey respondents reported higher new orders while 24.7% reported declines. The employment index increased to 48.1 from 44.4. It stood at a five-month high as 14.2% indicated job gains and 20.5% reported declines. The inventories reading improved to 48.1 from 42.6 in October. Sixteen percent of respondents raised inventory levels while 21.3% lowered them. The production index edged up to 46.8 after declining to 46.2 in October. It remained below the high of 54.6 in March. Sixteen percent of respondents reported higher production while 20.9% reported declines. Working lower, the supplier delivery index weakened to 48.7 last month from 52.0 during October. Six percent of respondents reported slower delivery speeds and 8.3% reported a speed-up.

The prices index, which is not part of the composite series, fell to 50.3 (NSA) from 54.8 in October. A lessened 12.2% of respondents reported higher prices last month while an increased 11.7% reported lower prices.

In other series, the export order index rose to 48.7 in November from 45.5 in October, but remained down from a March high of 51.6. The imports index fell to 47.6 last month from 48.3, below a March high of 53.0, while the order backlog index declined to 41.8, a four-month low.

The ISM figures are based on responses from over 400 purchasing executives from 18 industries, which are weighted according to each industry’s contribution to GDP. These indexes are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion and a reading below 50 points to contraction. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database; further detail is found in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations number is available in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Surprising strength moves index to highest level since June.
- New orders, employment & inventories lead improvement.
- Prices index backpedals.


U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Increases in November

Winnie Tapasanun

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The value of construction put in place rose a slightly more-than-expected 0.4% m/m in October on top of a 0.1% increase in September (unrevised) and an upwardly revised 0.9% gain in August (+0.1% previously), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. The October reading was the third consecutive m/m rise following a 0.04% July downtick and a 1.1% June drop. A 0.3% m/m October increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year rate decelerated to 5.0% in October from 5.3% in September, registering the lowest y/y pace since May 2023’s 4.2%. The latest y/y figure was lower than 8.6% in October 2023, having remained below its recent high of 9.8% in January 2024 and a peak of 18.6% in April 2022.

Private construction increased 0.7% (5.1% y/y) in October following a 0.2% decline in September (+0.03% initially) and a 1.0% increase in August (+0.2% previously). Residential private construction rebounded 1.5% (6.4% y/y) in October, up for the second month in three, following a 0.4% decline in September (+0.2% initially). Home improvement building recovered 2.7% (18.5% y/y), the third m/m gain in four months, following a 1.4% September drop; it was 41.2% of the residential private construction. Single-family building advanced 0.8% (1.3% y/y) after a 0.6% September rebound; it was 45.4% of the residential private construction. Multi-family building grew 0.2% (-6.8% y/y) in October, the first m/m gain since November 2023, reversing a 0.2% decline in September; it was 13.4% of the residential private construction.

Nonresidential private construction fell 0.3% (+3.5% y/y) in October, the first m/m fall since July, following a 0.05% uptick in September (-0.1% initially). The October fall reflected m/m drops in the following nonresidential private constructions. These included health care (-1.4%; -0.1% y/y), educational (-1.3%; +2.9% y/y), amusement & recreation (-1.2%; -0.4% y/y), commercial (-1.1%; -11.2% y/y), and lodging (-0.4%; -7.1% y/y). In contrast, the following private constructions rose m/m in October: religious (4.0%; 0.3% y/y), office (0.5%; 0.4% y/y), utilities (0.2%; 5.3% y/y), and transportation (0.1%; 10.1% y/y). Meanwhile, manufacturing private construction (-0.03%; +16.3% y/y) and communication private construction (+0.01%; -3.0% y/y) were virtually unchanged m/m in October.

The value of public construction fell 0.5% (+4.5% y/y) in October after upwardly revised rises of 1.1% in September (+0.5% initially) and 0.4% in August (+0.04% previously), reflecting declines of 0.5% (+6.4% y/y) in residential public construction and 0.5% (+4.5% y/y) in nonresidential public construction. The October fall reflected m/m drops in the following nonresidential public constructions. These included conservation & development (-3.3%; -10.6% y/y), sewage & waste disposal (-1.5%; +6.1% y/y), utilities (-1.5%; +2.9% y/y), water supply (-0.6%; +17.1% y/y), educational (-0.4%; +0.6% y/y), health care (-0.3%; +8.7% y/y), and transportation (-0.1%; +5.4% y/y). Notably, spending on highways & streets, which made up 28.4% of public construction spending, slid 0.7% (-1.2% y/y) in October, the fist m/m slide in three months, following a 0.9% increase in September. To the upside, the following public constructions rose m/m in October: office (2.0%; 10.3% y/y), public safety (1.1%; 21.4% y/y), amusement & recreation (0.9%; 20.7% y/y), and commercial (0.7%; 34.3% y/y).

The construction figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- October construction spending +0.4% m/m; +5.0% y/y, the lowest y/y rate since May ’23.
- Residential private construction +1.5% m/m, led by a 2.7% rebound in home improvement building.
- Nonresidential private construction -0.3% m/m, the first monthly decline since July.
- Public sector construction -0.5% m/m, reflecting drops in both residential & nonresidential public buildings.

U.S. Construction Spending Rises for the Third Consecutive Month in October

Robert Brusca

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Globally unemployment rates are continuing to move sideways or falling but the main exception is the United States with some recent increase in unemployment; unemployment in the U.S. has recently picked up from its cycle low in the wake of the Covid recession and government policies to deal with it.

In the European Monetary Union, the unemployment rate has had its low and it's been stuck here for several months. Despite some disquieting and weak economic data for the monetary union, unemployment has stayed at an extremely low level- its all-time low.

Among the 12 countries listed in the table, 5 of them have higher unemployment rates month-to-month with only Italy seeing the unemployment rate fall in October compared to a month ago. Countries experiencing a rise in their local unemployment rates are Finland, France, Luxembourg, Ireland, and Greece.

In terms of the monetary union aggregates, total unemployment continues to fall in the union as a whole over 12 months, over six months, and over three months.

Unemployment rates fell in only three of the EMU countries listed in the table one month ago. Two months ago, in August, unemployment rates fell in seven EMU member countries, while unemployment rose month-to-month in only three. The impetus for unemployment rates to drop is running out of steam while the list of countries experiencing higher rates of unemployment is rising.

Over broader periods, trends are less clear as there are the same number of countries with unemployment rates falling over three months as there are over six months. Over 12 months, there's one more country that experiences a decline in its unemployment rate compared to the count over three- and six-month horizons. Over three and six months, unemployment falls compared to the previous period in four countries; over 12 months compared to 12 months ago, unemployment rate falls in five countries. So the process of unemployment reduction has slowed then stabilized, based on comparing these trends.

The overall trend as well as the trend for countries in the EMU as well as for the U.S. and Japan shows mostly tempered unemployment rates with unemployment falling or low but with nine showing 12-month increases. Finland and the U.K. show the sharpest 12-month increases. However, global PMI data, for example, and other global data, continue to show more economic weakness. So far that weakness has not permeated the job market that continues to be strong globally, despite some -so far- not very significant backtracking.

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Europe

EMU Unemployment Rate Continues to Slide Sideways