Financial markets have experienced heightened volatility in recent days, with investor sentiment rattled by rising US recession risks, escalating global trade tensions, and mounting geopolitical uncertainties. Sharp decline in US stocks, lower yields coupled with weaker confidence data reflect growing concerns that recent trade and economic policies from the US administration are sapping economic growth and increasing financial instability (chart 1). Beyond immediate market fluctuations, the long-term impact of these policies is also sparking a broader debate about the erosion of economic goodwill—the trust and stability that businesses and consumers historically associated with the United States (chart 2). Meanwhile, China and South Korea, two of the world’s most trade-dependent economies, are also feeling the strain with latest data from the latter suggesting sharply slower industrial production and weakening external demand (charts 3 and 4). The impact is also evident in Europe, where, having cut its key policy rates by 25bps this week, the ECB faces increasing challenges in calibrating monetary policy amid an uncertain economic landscape (chart 5). Finally, and looking at even broader issues, energy remains a critical variable in the global outlook. While the long-term energy transition continues, short-term concerns over trade-driven supply disruptions and geopolitical instability in energy markets add another layer of economic risk, reinforcing fears that persistent economic fragmentation could weigh on long-term growth across major economies (chart 6).
Introducing
Andrew Cates
in:Our Authors
Andy Cates joined Haver Analytics as a Senior Economist in 2020. Andy has more than 25 years of experience forecasting the global economic outlook and in assessing the implications for policy settings and financial markets. He has held various senior positions in London in a number of Investment Banks including as Head of Developed Markets Economics at Nomura and as Chief Eurozone Economist at RBS. These followed a spell of 21 years as Senior International Economist at UBS, 5 of which were spent in Singapore. Prior to his time in financial services Andy was a UK economist at HM Treasury in London holding positions in the domestic forecasting and macroeconomic modelling units. He has a BA in Economics from the University of York and an MSc in Economics and Econometrics from the University of Southampton.
Publications by Andrew Cates
Global| Feb 27 2025Charts of the Week: No Free Lunch
The global economy remains fragile, with financial markets showing resilience despite persistent policy uncertainties, geopolitical risks, and uneven growth. Investors have largely adopted a wait-and-see approach, balancing inflationary pressures and rising US trade protectionism against looser monetary policy and optimism about AI-driven productivity gains. This week’s charts highlight the growing complexities in global trade and economic policy, where traditional tools, such as tariffs, could be increasingly misaligned with economic realities. Recent US survey data, for instance, indicate a sharp rise in inflation expectations, likely fuelled by concerns over tariffs, which have simultaneously weighed on consumer confidence (chart 1). Meanwhile, latest US trade figures reveal a record deficit in goods trade alongside a widening surplus in services trade, further emphasizing why tariffs alone are unlikely to correct trade imbalances (chart 2). At the same time, shifts in US trade policy have coincided with near-record highs in global economic policy uncertainty. By dampening business and consumer confidence, this could weaken US export demand, complicating the intended effects of trade restrictions. Another dynamic is unfolding in Europe, where geopolitical tensions are prompting governments to increase defence spending, introducing yet another layer of uncertainty into the macroeconomic outlook (chart 4). In short, downside risks to global growth are mounting. Sector-specific and country-level risk indicators, such as those provided by our data partner Dun and Bradstreet, and which capture these underlying pressures, will certainly be useful for monitoring broader economic risks in the months ahead (charts 5 and 6).
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Feb 20 2025Charts of the Week: Calm Before the Storm?
Financial markets have remained relatively calm in recent days despite potentially disruptive US trade policy shifts (charts 1 and 2) and incoming data indicating that inflationary pressures have been lingering (chart 3). Investor sentiment suggests a wait-and-see approach, with markets appearing confident that central banks can navigate inflation risks without triggering sharp economic slowdowns. The muted market reaction may also indicate that the potential effects of recent tariff policies have already been priced in, with businesses and investors either viewing them as a bargaining tool or a long-term structural shift rather than an immediate shock. Additionally, the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine has likely contributed to market stability, alleviating near-term risks to global supply chains and energy prices. However, vulnerabilities remain, particularly in Europe, where growth at the end of last year was notably weak, and high electricity costs continued to weigh on competitiveness, especially in the UK and Germany (charts 4 and 5). This energy disadvantage stands in notable contrast to the US, where lower prices have provided a relative economic edge. Meanwhile, Japan has shown signs of a cyclical rebound, supported by a recovery in exports and stronger capital expenditure, though consumer spending remains subdued (chart 6). Whether the global economy can maintain this fragile stability will depend on the interplay between trade policies, inflation trends, and central bank actions in the period ahead.
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Feb 13 2025Charts of the Week: Still Shining in the West
Recent weeks have brought significant shifts in financial market sentiment, reflecting changes in consensus views about the global economy. The latest Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey highlights the United States as a standout performer, with forecasters maintaining resilient growth forecasts compared to the rest of the world (chart 1). However, escalating concerns over US trade policy have led to sharp downward revisions in growth expectations for large open economies such as South Korea in recent months (chart 2). Inflation pressures also remain a key concern, which may have been amplified by the firmer-than-expected January US CPI data that were published this week (chart 3). CPI forecasts for most major economies, for example, have generally been climbing in recent months (chart 4). A notable exception is China, where inflation forecasts have continued to decline, and to worryingly low levels. Meanwhile, with Fed Chair Powell also signalling this week that the US central bank is in no hurry to cut interest rates, interest rate differentials remain a delicate balancing act for policymakers in many economies, particularly in Asia (chart 6). Recent financial market volatility certainly underscores the fine line central banks must tread as they navigate global economic uncertainties, including protectionist US trade policies and the ripple effects of shifting US monetary policy.
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Feb 06 2025Charts of the Week: Tariff Trouble
President Trump’s tariff policies have been a major driver of financial market volatility in recent days, sparking sharp swings in equities and currencies. While the administration has temporarily reversed its proposal for a 25% tariff on imported goods from Canada and Mexico, uncertainty surrounding US trade relationships, the risk of retaliatory measures from key trading partners, and broader concerns about global growth continue to unsettle investors. A fundamental irony is that the US trade deficit—the very issue that President Trump purportedly aims to correct—is not primarily driven by so-called “unfair” trade practices but rather by global savings and investment imbalances (chart 1). Nations such as China, Germany, and Japan have maintained high savings rates for several years, and their excess capital is continually recycled into US financial markets, where superior returns and deep liquidity have made the US an attractive investment destination. The persistent inflow of foreign capital strengthens the US dollar, reinforcing the trade deficit rather than narrowing it (charts 3 and 4). Indeed, the multi-year highs in the trade-weighted value of the dollar serve as clear evidence that capital has continued to flow into the US, sustaining deficits despite protectionist measures. Ultimately, Trump’s tariff-driven policies risk doing more harm than good, as they threaten to slow global growth, strain relationships with allies, and exacerbate inflationary pressures by raising input costs for US businesses and consumers. Rather than addressing the root causes of global imbalances (chart 5), such measures distort supply chains (chart 6), impair productivity growth, and fail to alter the fundamental drivers of trade deficits.
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Jan 30 2025Charts of the Week: Looking at the Here and Now
Several key themes have been driving financial market fluctuations in recent weeks, including the resilience of the US economy, the policy direction of the new US administration, geopolitical instability, and the productivity potential of AI. The trajectory of central bank policy has also taken centre stage, particularly following this week’s widely expected decisions by the ECB and the BoC to cut their respective policy rates by 25bps, while the Fed opted to leave its policy rate on hold (see chart 1 and 2). Despite the recent wave of optimism pervading financial markets, several factors continue to warrant caution. Chief among them is the uncertainty surrounding the policy direction of the new US administration, which could have far-reaching implications for global growth (chart 3). China's outlook more specifically remains fragile—not only due to potential shifts in US policy but also because of persistent stress in its property sector (chart 4). Additionally, weaker-than-expected economic data from the euro area this week, particularly the flat reading for Q4 GDP, further underscores concerns about the region’s sluggish growth momentum (chart 5). Meanwhile, central banks continue to face a delicate balancing act, as the resilience of the US labour market risks reigniting inflationary pressures, complicating the calibration of monetary policy. Lastly, while artificial intelligence is widely seen as a long-term driver of growth and productivity, growing competitive pressures within the tech sector have recently sparked concerns about the profitability of firms supplying AI infrastructure, highlighting the risks to one of the market’s most celebrated growth narratives. Still, there are bright spots that help offset some of these downside risks. One such example is India’s economy, which continues to show resilience amid incoming data that point to strong domestic demand, sustained investment flows, and policy measures aimed at bolstering growth (chart 3 and 6).
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Jan 23 2025Charts of the Week: Trump Cards
Financial markets have enjoyed a notable lift in sentiment over recent days, driven by renewed optimism about the domestic economic policies of a new US administration. Investors have certainly been cheered by early signals of a pro-growth strategy, with the energy sector taking centre stage following a ceasefire between Israel and Gaza and the announcement of measures aimed at reducing US energy costs (see charts 1 and 2). Meanwhile, China’s stronger-than-expected growth figures last week and softer-than-expected inflation readings from both the US and the UK have fuelled gains across equity and bond markets, bolstering risk appetite in other markets. However, despite the prevailing optimism, several factors warrant caution. Chief among them is the global uncertainty that surrounds the policy choices of a new US administration. The policy choices of central banks will also be critical, particularly as labour market strength could keep inflation risks alive (charts 3 and 4). Questions also linger about China’s ability to sustain its growth momentum, especially as its property sector and consumer demand face ongoing challenges (chart 5). Finally, while artificial intelligence is increasingly seen as a driver of future growth and productivity, doubts persist over its near-term potential to meaningfully transform the world economy (chart 6). For now, investors appear content to ride the wave of positive sentiment, but vigilance over these risks will be critical as the economic landscape continues to evolve.
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Jan 16 2025Charts of the Week: Yielding Conclusions
A steep sell-off in global bond markets has dominated financial headlines over the past week or so, drawing intense scrutiny from investors and policymakers alike (chart 1). The implications of this for the global economy, however, will depend on the underlying drivers that have been fuelling the rout. With our charts this week, we examine the data to identify some of the likely culprits. Inflation concerns are front and centre, with rising consumer prices in recent months (chart 2) reigniting fears of tighter monetary policy. Waning overseas demand, particularly from Japan and China (charts 3 and 4), may also be playing a significant role. Meanwhile, quantitative tightening (chart 5) has possibly siphoned liquidity from financial markets, while fiscal policy uncertainties are further rattling investor confidence. The easy conclusion is that all these factors—ranging from inflationary pressures to fiscal risks—are complicit to varying degrees. However, whether this marks the beginning of a broader reckoning or merely a passing squall hinges on how incoming data now evolve and how policymakers respond to these challenges. On that first point, weaker-than-expected inflation data from the US and UK this week appear to have stopped the rot for now (chart 6). On the latter, a new US administration could add another layer of unpredictability and the coming weeks could prove pivotal in shaping market expectations and the trajectory of the global economy.
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Jan 09 2025Charts of the Week: Energy, Naturally
Investors have returned to focusing on several familiar themes so far this year. These include the resilience of the US economy compared with the rest of the world, the macroeconomic implications of a new US administration, simmering geopolitical tensions, and the productivity potential of AI. Inflation concerns have also been amplified in recent weeks, however, partly due to some firmer-than-expected inflation data, most notably in the US (see charts 1 and 2). Against that backdrop and fuelled by greater caution about the scope for easier monetary policy from the US Fed, expectations for the scale of US policy rate cuts in the year ahead have been significantly scaled back (chart 3). This adjustment, however, has not been fully mirrored in forecasts for policy rates in Europe (chart 4), partly due to the region’s more subdued growth outlook. In the background to these developments, energy price fluctuations continue to play a major role in shaping both cyclical gyrations and broader structural trends. It has certainly been no coincidence that inflation concerns have intensified at the same time as energy prices have been climbing. The US economy’s (and the US dollar’s) ongoing resilience relative to the rest of the world can also be attributed, in part, to the former’s energy trade surplus, which has been shielding it from instability stemming from global energy price shocks (charts 5 and 6).
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Dec 19 2024Charts of the Week: Inflated Expectations
Investors have shifted their attention back to the economic data and monetary policy over the past few days, marking a shift from recent weeks when political developments took centre stage in shaping financial market sentiment (chart 1). While this week’s decision by the US Fed to cut policy rates by 25 bps was widely anticipated, the accompanying commentary and forecasts have heightened concerns that US monetary policy will remain tighter for longer in the months ahead. Similarly, the BoE’s likely decision to leave rates unchanged this week has stoked comparable concerns about the UK’s policy trajectory. The key driver behind these concerns is inflation. Persistent inflation in the services sector (chart 2) and ongoing wage pressures are leaving policymakers in the US and UK reluctant to ease monetary policy further. This hesitancy has been amplified by financial conditions that have arguably been looser in recent months than central banks would prefer (chart 3). Additionally, a potential shift toward a more protectionist global trade environment next year could exacerbate price pressures in traded goods sectors, further complicating efforts to bring inflation back toward target levels (chart 4). Meanwhile, in Japan, the BoJ’s decision to maintain its accommodative monetary policy highlights a contrasting challenge: low inflation and a fragile economy. These dynamics stand in stark contrast to the issues confronting the US Fed (chart 5). Further complicating the global picture is China (chart 6), where recent data point to an economy weighed down by weak consumer demand, excess industrial capacity, and tepid inflation. This also underlines the increasingly divergent challenges faced by policymakers across the world’s major economies as they navigate a highly complex and uncertain macroeconomic landscape.
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Dec 12 2024Charts of the Week: The Year Ahead
In our penultimate Charts of the Week publication for 2024, we turn our attention to the upcoming year and highlight several themes that are poised to mould the economic and financial market landscape. Although a soft-landing consensus for the world economy is presently implicit in most economic forecasts for next year (chart 1) that view is not without challenges. Uncertainty about the economic outlook has bolted sharply higher in recent weeks (chart 2) partly because of the likely major - and potentially disruptive - policy changes from a new US administration (chart 3). Lingering supply-side challenges, such as climate change and the energy transition, are also generating a great deal of economic and political instability at present, most notably in Europe (charts 4 and 5). In the meantime, many Asian economies face additional challenges, including the potential for higher tariffs on trade (chart 6) and lingering debt-related problems in China (chart 7). Generating sufficient domestic growth momentum to mitigate those problems is also proving to be tough for a number of countries, not least in Japan (chart 8). As Japan’s policymakers are all too aware a key reason for weak domestic demand momentum is ageing demographics, a structural problem that will likely remain in vogue in 2025, not least in the realm of healthcare provision and fiscal policy (chart 9). Geopolitical risks will also likely remain elevated even if there is some progress next year in mitigating those risks in Eastern Europe and the Middle East (chart 10). Finally, and ending on a more positive note, there are some offsets to these downside risks, not least via the productivity-enhancing potential of AI technology (chart 11). The rebound that has been unfolding in the travel and tourism sector in recent months is also noteworthy, and a push back against the trend toward a de-globalisation of the world economy in recent years (chart 12).
Global| Dec 05 2024Charts of the Week: The Year in Review
This year, the narrative in financial markets has been defined by the unexpected resilience of the US economy. This resilience has stood in stark contrast to Europe, China and Japan, where growth outcomes have frequently fallen short of expectations (see chart 1). These growth considerations have also yielded important consequences for inflation (chart 2) and monetary policy. But feedback loops via savings imbalances have been significant too for shaping financial markets, particularly as the US has continued to attract substantial capital inflows (chart 3). Those inflows have amplified US asset market performance and generated enthusiasm for alternative assets, such as Bitcoin, and safe assets, such as gold, at the same time (chart 4). In the background to this there has been heightened enthusiasm about the productivity-potential of AI, further supporting demand – via its technology leadership - for US assets (chart 5). However, there has equally, and more recently, been heightened concern about the potential trade policy consequences of a new US administration (chart 6). We will be discussing the outlook for the year ahead in more detail in next week’s publication.
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
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