Introducing

Charles Steindel

Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.

Publications by Charles Steindel

• USA| Apr 23 2025

  State Coincident Indexes in March 2025

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in March were a touch firmer than in February, but not robust. In the one-month changes, West Virginia was on top with a .77 percent gain, while South Dakota, Indiana, Montana, and South Carolina were also up more than .5 percent. Nine states were down, with Connecticut’s .23 percent drop being the largest. Over the three months ending in March, five states were down, with Massachusetts off .48 percent (Connecticut and Rhode Island also showed declines, obviously suggesting some softness in southern New England). West Virginia was up 2.06 percent, and South Carolina, Montana, Indiana, and South Dakota also rising more than 1 percent. Over the last twelve months, Iowa and Michigan were down, and twelve others saw increases of less than one percent. No state had an increase higher than four percent, and only four were at or higher than three percent. Utah’s index rose 3.33 percent, while Michigan was down 1.48 percent.

  The independently estimated national estimates of growth over the last three and twelve months were, respectively, .61 and 2.44 percent. Both measures appear to be a bit weaker than the state numbers.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Apr 18 2025

  State Labor Markets in March 2025

  March was another month of little change in state labor markets. The sum of payroll changes among the states was close to the national result, and revisions eliminated most of the gap initially seen for February. Six states saw statistically significant gains in jobs in March, with Pennsylvania increasing by 20,900 and Missouri up .5% (Texas reported a larger, not statistically significant, gain than Pennsylvania). A few states had insignificant declines.

  Three states (Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Virginia) had statistically significant changes in their unemployment rates, with Connecticut’s .2 percentage point rise being the larges. Indiana reported a significant .2 percentage point drop. The highest unemployment rates were in Nevada (5.7%), DC (5.6%), Michigan (5.5%) California (5.3%), and Kentucky 5.2). Hawaii, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Vermont had unemployment rates under 3.0%, while South Dakota’s 1.8% was yet again the lowest in the nation.

  Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.3% and the island’s job count moved up by 800.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Apr 09 2025

  State Coincident Indexes in February 2025

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in February were similar to January, generally on the soft side in January. In the one-month changes, West Virginia led with a .62 percent gain, with no other state up as much as .5 percent. Nine states were down, with Washington’s .2 percent drop being the largest. Over the three months ending in February, four states were down, all by small amounts West Virginia and South Carolina were the only states seeing gains above 1 percent. Over the last twelve months, three states were down, and twelve others saw increases of less than one percent. No state had an increase higher than four percent, and only two were higher than three percent. Utah’s index rose 3.32 percent, while Michigan was down 1.64 percent.

  The independently estimated national estimates of growth over the last three and twelve months were, respectively, .81 and 2.51 percent. Both measures appear to be somewhat stronger than the state numbers. These indexes are very dependent on payroll employment numbers, and in both January and February the sum of state payroll employment changes was less than the national figure.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Apr 02 2025

  State Coincident Indexes in January 2025

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes continued to be on the soft side in January (February numbers will be released on April 9). In the one-month changes, Montana led with a .66 percent gain, while West Virginia and South Carolina had increases above .5 percent. 13 states registered declines, none greater than North Dakota’s .34 percent. Over the three months ending in January, only two states (Missouri and Wyoming) were down, both by small amounts. The gains were also somewhat muted, with only five (South Caroilina, Washington, Idaho, Utah, and Maryland) showing increases above 1 percent, topping off at South Carolina’s 1.35 percent. Over the last twelve months, three states were down, and eleven others saw increases of less than one percent. No state had an increase higher than four percent, and only three were higher than three percent. Washington’s index rose 3.66 percent, while Michigan was down 1.34 percent.

  The independently estimated national estimates of growth over the last three and twelve months were, respectively, .61 and 2.41 percent. These both appear to be roughly in line with the state numbers.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Mar 28 2025

  State Labor Markets in February 2025

  State labor markets were again generally little-changed in February, though three states (Missouri, New Jersey, and Ohio) had statistically significant increases in payrolls; moves in all others were not significant., though in some cases were up or down by more than 10,000. The sum of payroll changes among the states was well under the national result (88,000 vs .151,000). The January numbers now show a loss of 4,000 jobs when the state figures are summed, which is very much under the nation’s 121,000 increase. There are any number of reasons why the summed state result will differ from the nations, not only different seasonal adjustment factors, but also different base quarters for benchmarking the not seasonally adjusted figures.

  Florida was the only state to report a statistically significant change (up .1 percentage point) in its unemployment rate. The highest unemployment rates were in Nevada (5.8%), California (5.4%), DC (5.4%), Michigan (5.4%), and Kentucky. Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Vermont had unemployment rates under 3.0%, while South Dakota’s 1.9% was again the lowest in the nation.

  Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.4% and the island’s job count inched up by 100.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Mar 17 2025

  State Labor Markets in January 2025

  State labor markets were generally little-changed from December to January, but were arguably a bit on the soft side. Four states (Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, and West Virginia) had statistically significant declines in payrolls; moves in all others were not significant., though in some cases were up or down by more than 10,000 (very remarkably, California’s job count was reported at 18,032,400 in both December and January).

  Pennsylvania was the only state to report a statistically significant change (up .1 percentage point) in its unemployment rate. The highest unemployment rates were in Nevada (5.8%), California (5.4%), DC (5.3%), Kentucky (5.3%) and Michigan (5.3%)—due to the annual revisions, in some cases the rates look substantially different than the initially reported ones for December (Michigan, for instance, its December rate changed from 5.0% to 5.2%, while the December rate in Illinois moved from 5.2% to 4.9%). Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Vermont had unemployment rates under 3.0%, while South Dakota’s 1.9% was the lowest in the nation.

  Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.4%--unusually, lower than the state rate--while the island’s job count moved up by 2,800.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Jan 31 2025

  State Coincident Indexes in December 2024

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes were mixed to soft in December. In the one-month changes, Delaware led with a .72 percent gain, and Minnesota, Montana, and Washington had increases above .5 percent. 15 states registered declines, with Alabama down more than .4 percent. Over the 3 months ending in December, 11 states were down, with Michigan off by .7 percent and Maine dropping .71 percent. Delaware, though, was up more than 1.8 percent, with Washington, Missouri, Utah and Montana also showing increases above 1 percent. Over the last 12 months, 6 states were down, and 10 others saw increases of less than 1 percent. South Carolina’s index dropped 1.52 percent. Connecticut was up 4.72 percent and Arizona rose 4.28 percent.

  The independently estimated national estimates of growth over the last 3 months and 12 months were, respectively, .61 and 2.65 percent. These both appear to be roughly in line with the state numbers.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Jan 28 2025

  State Labor Markets in December 2024

  State labor markets in December remained in similar patterns to recent months. The vast majority of states reported statistically insignificant increases in payrolls from November; Missouri and Texas were the only ones showing significant gains. A few states reported insignificant drops.

  Eight states had statistically significant changes in their unemployment rates—two down and six up. None of these changes were larger than .2 percentage point. The highest unemployment rates were in Nevada (5.7%), DC (5.5%), California (5.5%), Illinois (5.2%), and Kentucky (5.2%) The number of state with unemployment rates under 3.0% declined, with Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Vermont remaining in that category. South Dakota’s 1.9% was the lowest in the nation.

  Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.4%, while the island’s job count was essentially stable (the point estimate fell by 100).

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Dec 31 2024

  State Coincident Indexes in November 2024

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes continued to be soft in November. In the one-month changes, Washington (likely aided by the end of the Boeing strike) led with a .62 percent gain, and Delaware and Montana had increases above .5 percent. On the other side, 18 states had declines declined, with Maine, Michigan, and Alabama all down close to .4 percent. Over the 3 months ending in November, 10 states were down, with Massachusetts and South Carolina clocking declines of nearly .7 percent. Delaware, Connecticut, and Missouri were each up more than 1 percent, with Delaware’s 1.27 percent increase the highest. Over the last 12 months, 5 states were down, and 9 others saw increases of less than 1 percent. South Carolina’s index was off by 1.52 percent. Connecticut had a 4.6 percent increase, Arizona rose 4.54 percent and Connecticut was up 4.7 percent, with 4 others up percent or more.

  The independently estimated national estimates of growth over the last 3 months (.55 percent) and 12 months were .70 and 2.64 percent. These both appear to be roughly in line with the state numbers.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Dec 20 2024

  State GDP and Personal Income in Q3 2024

  State real GDP growth rates in 2024:3 ranged from North Dakota’s -2.3% to Arkansas’s 6.9%. A large distribution of growth in agriculture output played an important role in distributing growth across the states, with farm losses hurting states in the Great Plains, while boosting output in some others, most notably Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, and Vermont. Growth was more evenly distributed in less agricultural states; among the largest Texas was on the high side, with a 4.2% growth rate, while New York lagged with a 1.8% figure.

  The distribution of personal income was comparable to that of GDP, with North Dakota’s -0.7% rate of decline at the bottom and Arkansas’s 5.4% on top. Again, developments on the farms contributed to the outliers. Dividends, rent, and interest fell in every state (and DC), while the dispersion in transfer income was fairly modest, though the aggregate income figures for New York, California, and Texas were all aided by faster-than average growth in this category.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Dec 20 2024

  State Labor Markets in November 2024

  State labor markets were little-changed in November, save for the after-effects of October disruptions. The end of the Boeing strike, and the rebound from Hurricane Milton, triggered statistically significant gains in payrolls in Washington and Florida. Alaska, DC, and Kansas also saw significant gains.

  Six states had statistically significant increases in their unemployment rates in November, and one (Delaware) showed an decline. None of the changes were larger than .2 percentage point. The highest unemployment rates were in Nevada (5.7%), DC (5.6%), California (5.4%), and Illinois (5.3%). No other state had rates as much as a point higher than the national 4.2%. Hawaii, Maine, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wisconsin had rates of 3.0% or lower, with South Dakota at 1.9%.

  Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.4%, while the island’s job count grew by 3,300.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Nov 22 2024

  State Coincident Indexes in October 2024

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes were again soft in October.. In the one-month changes, South Dakota led with a .67 percent gain, and Connecticut, Ohio, and Delaware had increases above .5 percent. However, the indexes for 13 states declined, with South Carolina and Michigan both down .4 percent (Michigan saw some pronounced retrenchment in autos, and South Carolina would have been hit by the Boeing strike). Over the 3 months ending in September, 12 states were down, with South Carolina (down 1.4 percent) and Massachusetts (off 1.1 percent) once again at the bottom. Connecticut was yet again at the top, with a 1.7 percent increase, with Over the last 12 months, 3 states were down, and 10 saw increases of less than 1 percent. South Carolina’s index was off by 1.2 percent. Arizona had a 4.9 percent increase, and Connecticut was up 4.7 percent, with 7 others up more than 3 percent.

  The independently estimated national estimates of growth over the last 3 months (.55 percent) and 12 months (2.55 percent) appear to be roughly in line with the state numbers.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints