Introducing

Charles Steindel

Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.

Publications by Charles Steindel

• USA| Dec 22 2023

  State GDP and Personal Income in Q3 2023

  State real GDP growth rates in 2023:3 ranged from Kansas’s 9.7% to Arkansas’s 0.7% (the latter in Q3 being Wasn’t rather than Ar Kansas). As Kansas would suggest, states with relatively high concentrations in agriculture tended to rank high, but there was also strong growth in the Rocky Mountains as well as Florida.

  The distribution of personal income growth was comparable to real GDP; Arkansas was also at the bottom, while Kansas was 3rd (Texas was number 1, which is something often heard there for many other things). As is often the case, aggregate personal income growth can be heavily affected by seemingly random movements in transfer payments. In general, transfer payments fell in Q3. In New York, though, an anomalous 4.4% rate of growth in transfers pushed the state’s aggregate income growth about the national pace, despite a rather soft gain in net earnings.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Dec 05 2023

  State GDP in 2023:Q2

  After considerable delay, reflecting the compilation of new benchmark output by industry data, BEA has issued state GDP numbers for 2023:Q2. Wyoming’s 8.7 percent was the fastest in the nation, while Vermont’s -1.9 percent was the lowest. Growth was generally highest in the Southwest and Rocky Mountain regions; the Southeast wand Great Lakes were weakest. Aside from Vermont, Mississippi, Delaware, Arkansas, Missouri, and Wisconsin saw declines in real output. In general, highly variable contributions from agriculture explain much of the variation between high and low-growth states (agriculture contributed 2.2 percentage points to Wyoming’s growth rate, but subtracted .75 points from Vermont).

  California, Texas, New York, and Florida are the states with annual rates of nominal GDP higher than $1 trillion. California’s is higher than $3 trillion, and in Q2 Texas surpassed $2 trillion.

  BEA announced that the Q3 estimates will be released on December 22, bringing them more in line with national GDP figures.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Nov 27 2023

  State Coincident Indexes in October 2023

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in October were quite mixed, with the balance tilting toward weakness. A full 32 states show declines from September, with West Virginia’s reading down by 1 percent and Montana’s and Mississippi’s indexes falling more than .5 percent. Of the 18 states with increases, the largest was Nevada’s fairly moderate .33 percent. Over the 3 months ending in October, 16 states had declines, with West Virginia off 2.7 percent, and Montana and Mississippi dropping more than 1 percent. South Carolina and Maryland both increased roughly 1.3 percent over this period, which is not an especially large gain for states at the top Over the last 12 months Maryland had an impressive 7.4 percent increase, and Massachusetts and Vermont were up more than 6 percent. 3 states had increases of less than 1 percent, with New Jersey again at the bottom with a .2 percent reading.

  The independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 months (.5 percent) and 12 months (3.0 percent) both look to be roughly in line with what the state figures suggest.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Nov 17 2023

  State Labor Markets in October 2023

  State labor markets were soft in October. Florida’s 28,400 increase (.3 percent) was the only statistically significant change in payrolls (California’s 40,200 gain was not seen as statistically significant). The number of states reporting point declines was comparable to the number reporting increases. The sum of the states’ payroll changes was only 43,800 (noticeably smaller than the national 150,000), the lowest such figure since December 2020.

  26 states had statistically significant increases in their unemployment rates in October, though none were larger than .2 percentage point. Nevada continued to have the nation’s highest rate, at 5.4 percent while DC was at 5.0 percent. No other state had a rate more than 1 percentage point above the nation’s 3.9 percent, though California, Illinois, and New Jersey were higher than 4.5 percent. Alabama, Florida, Hawaii, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, and Wyoming, all had rates at or below 2.9 percent, with Maryland at 1.7 percent.

  Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate fell t0 5.8 percent, and the island’s payrolls increased 2,800.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Oct 25 2023

  State Coincident Indexes in September 2023

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in September were again soft, and the results were very similar to August’s. 19 states show declines from August, with West Virginia down nearly 1 percent. The largest increase was .65 percent in Maryland.in the rate of growth. Over the 3 months ending in September 10 states had declines, with West Virginia’s -2.2 percent the largest, while Montana was also down more than 1 percent. Maryland had the largest gain, at 2.25 percent. The results are less lackluster at the 12-month horizon, with Maryland up 7.8 percent and Massachusetts and Vermont both up more than 6 percent.. 3 states had increases of less than 1 percent, with New Jersey up a mere .20 percent.

  The independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 months (.7 percent) and 12 months (3.1 percent) both look to be roughly in line with what the state figures suggest.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Oct 20 2023

  State Labor Markets in September 2023

  State labor markets were soft-to-mixed in September. Only 6 states saw statistically significant increases in payroll, though none reported a statistically significance drop. Texas gained 61,400 jobs and South Dakota reported a .9 percent increase. September was the third straight month in which the sum of state job changes fell short of the national figure; the sum of the differences since June is around 150,000.

  A full 16 states had statistically significant increases in unemployment from August to September, with a .3 percentage point increase in Illinois. Once again, Nevada continues to have the highest rate of any state in the nation, at 5.4 percent. Nevada and DC had unemployment rates at least one point higher than the national average of 3.8 percent. (California is the only other state with a rate statistically higher than the nation. Alabama, Florida, Hawaii, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Rhode Island, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia, were all at least a point lower, with Maryland at 1.6 percent.

  Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate moved down to 6.0 percent. The island added 2,000 jobs, and the private-sector total set a new all-time high.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Sep 29 2023

  State Personal Income in Q2 2023

  State personal income growth ranged from annual rates of 6.1 percent in DC and New York to -2.7 percent in Maine. The drop in Maine related to a one-off large decline in transfers; Arkansas, number 49 with a meager .4 percent growth rate, was weak in all major categories.

  In general, states in that grew notably faster than the national average were in the Northeast and Far West, and slow-growing states in the middle of the nation. There were exceptions: Kentucky grew at a 5.8 percent clip and Kansas 5.0 percent, while South Carolina (another state affected by a drop in transfers) grew at only a 1.4 percent rate.

  The range of the annual rate of growth for net earnings (employee compensation plus noncorporate business earnings—a measure likely more closely related than overall person income to current economic activity—was also wide, with Florida’s 7.1 percent tops, and North Dakota at the bottom at -.8 percent.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Sep 26 2023

  State Coincident Indexes in August 2023

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in were soft. 17 states reported declines from July, with West Virginia down nearly 1 percent. The largest increase was.7 percent in neighboring Maryland.in the rate of growth. Over the 3 months ending August 7 states had declines, with West Virginia’s -1.4 percent being the largest. Maryland had the largest gain, at 3 percent. The results look somewhat better at the 12-month horizon, with Massachusetts up 7.8 percent and Maryland’s index rising 7.7 percent. Virginia was the other state with an increase higher than 5 percent. 4 states had increases of less than 1 percent, with New Jersey’s a mere .25 percent.

  The independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 months (.6 percent) and 12 months (3.2 percent) both look to be roughly in line with what the state figures suggest.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Sep 19 2023

  State Labor Markets in August 2023

  State labor markets were generally lackluster in August. Only 5 states saw statistically significant increases in payroll, while 3 had declines. North Carolina picked up 17,500 jobs while Missouri lost 13,700. Montana a .7 percent increase; Hawaii a .8 percent loss.

  10 states had statistically significant increases in unemployment from July to August, with New Jersey and Wisconsin both up .3 percentage points. North Dakota and South Carolina had significant .1 percentage point drops. Nevada continues to have the highest rate of any state in the nation, at 5.4 percent. Nevada, and DC had unemployment rates at least one point higher than the national average of 3.8 percent. Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Hawaii, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, both Dakotas, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia, were all at least a point lower, with Maryland at 1.7 percent.

  Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate was an unchanged 6.2 percent. The island added 3,900 jobs, bringing the number above May’s recent high.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Aug 23 2023

  State Coincident Indexes in July 2023

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in July suggest a slowdown in the rate of growth. 8 states saw declines in their indexes from June, with West Virginia and Montana down about .6 percent. No state had a gain larger than Pennsylvania’s 1 percent. Massachusetts and Maryland were again the leaders in growth over the last 3 months, but in both cases the increases were not above 3 percent (Massachusetts’ gain rounded up to 3 percent). 36 states had growth of 1 percent or lower, with 5 experiencing outright declines (Montana was down 1 percent). The 12-month numbers look better, with Massachusetts up a remarkable 7.3 percent, and Maryland rising 6.4 percent. Arkansas and Missouri had increases of less than 1 percent.

  The independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 months (.60 percent) and 12 months (3.25 percent) both look to be roughly in line with what the state figures suggest.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Aug 18 2023

  State Labor Markets in July 2023

  Only 4 states saw statistically significant increases in payrolls in July. Florida picked up 44,500 jobs, while Vermont had a .9 percent gain. The large increase in Vermont is a bit puzzling, since the disruptions caused by major flooding in that state occurred in mid-month, when the payroll count occurs (leisure and hospitality jobs did fall). Still, Vermont jobs had dropped sharply in June, so the July gain may be mostly normalization, perhaps related to seasonal adjustment issues.

  7 states had statistically significant drops in unemployment from June to July, led by Pennsylvania’s .3 percentage point fall. Nevada continues to have the highest rate of any state in the nation, at 5.3 percent. 3 states had significant .1 percentage point gains, though a number of others also experienced point increases, led by New Jersey’s .2 percentage point boost. Nevada, DC, and California all had unemployment rates at least one point higher than the national average of 3.5 percent. Alabama, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, both Dakotas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia, were all at least a point lower, with New Hampshire at 1.7 percent.

  Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate moved up to 6.2 percent. The job count increase of nearly 5,000 did not reverse all of June’s decline. The recent moves were mainly in the public sector.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Jul 26 2023

  State Coincident Indexes in June 2023

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in June increased from May in all but 3 states (New Jersey, Indiana, and Montana). Maryland and Washington were the leaders, and the only states with increases above 1 percent. Massachusetts (whose gain in June was just shy of 1 percent) had the largest 3-month increase, close to 4 percent—more than a percentage point above number 2 Maryland. In a sign that growth is cooling 28 states had gains of less than 1 percent in this period, including Montana’s small decline. Over the past 12 months, Massachusetts was once again the leader, with an increase of 6 ¾ percent, with Maryland a point behind (Bay Staters are likely fairly indifferent to that gap given the Orioles’ current lead over the Red Sox). Minnesota and Missouri had increases of less than 1 percent.

  The independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 months (.73 percent) looks roughly in line of what the state figures suggest, while the corresponding 12-month result (3.50 percent) looks like it might be somewhat stronger than the state numbers.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints