Introducing

Charles Steindel

Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.

Publications by Charles Steindel

• USA| Mar 13 2023

  State Labor Markets in January 2023

  State labor markets in January generally showed some gains from December. 20 states had statistically significant gains in payrolls; California’s job count increase was 96,700 (about double number 2 Texas), and both Arizona and Tennessee saw .7 percent gains. Kansas, Rhode Island, and Wyoming had modest point declines. Over the last 12 months, 47 states had significant increases, with Texas having the highest numerical increase (654,100) and Nevada the highest percentage gain (6.0). the way in both numbers and percentage (650,100 and 5.0, respectively). There were no point declines.

  Unemployment rates were little-changed; a few states had statistically significant moves from December, but none larger than .2 percentage points (in either direction). The 2.1 percent rates in both Dakotas were the nation’s lowest, while Nevada’s 5.5 percent was far and away the highest (number two was Oregon). Only 6 states were more than one point away from the national average of 3.4%, and 3 of those (the Dakotas and Delaware) are small.

  Puerto Rico’s gained more than 5,000 jobs in January. The overall payroll count on the island is nearing its highest level in more than a decade, while the private-sector is approaching an all-time peak. The unemployment rate (which had not been reported for some months) was unchanged at 6.0 percent, despite a .9 percent gain in the labor force. Revised data show that Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate set a record low of 5.8 percent last June. Data are not released for Puerto Rico on the labor force participation rate or the ratio of employment to population, but considering that the population of Puerto Rico is roughly the as Iowa’s, and its labor force is no more than 70% as large, it is clear that despite good numbers in recent years, there is still a long way to go before the island’s labor market can be seen as comparable to mainland norms.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Jan 31 2023

  State Coincident Indexes in December 2022

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in December were somewhat mixed. The indexes in 16 states were down from November, thought the largest decline was Minnesota’s fairly modest .41 percent. Of more concern was 16 states showing declines at the three-month horizon percent, and two more unchanged. Three states (Minnesota, Maine, and Vermont) had declines larger than .5 percent. On the upside, only seven had gains of more than 1 percent, which is less than what has recently been the case (Texas was the only one of the 4 largest states in this group). Over the past 12 months the count of states seeing gains of 5 percent or more was reduced to 9 (including California, Florida, and Texas) while 4 states (Arizona, Montana, Mississippi, and Oklahoma) had increases under 2 percent.

  The independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 (.81 percent) and 12 (4.12 percent) were plausibly in line with the state results.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Jan 24 2023

  State Labor Markets in December 2022

  State labor markets in December were essentially unchanged from November. West Virginia was the only state to report a statistically significant change in payrolls (a 1.4 percent drop). Texas had the largest (not statistically significant) increase: 29,500. Over the last 12 months, 42 states had significant increases, with Texas leading the way in both numbers and percentage (650,100 and 5.0, respectively). There were no point declines.

  Unemployment rates rose significantly in 7 states and dropped in 5. Nevada’s .3 percentage point increase and Maryland’s .3 percent point decline were the largest moves. Utah’s 2.2 percent was the lowest rate, and Nevada’s 5.2 percent was the highest. The Dakota’s were the only other states with unemployment under 2.5 percent. Illinois and DC both had 4.7 percetn unemployment rates. In sum, 46 states had unemployment rates no more than 1 percentage point different than the national average of 3.5 percent.

  Puerto Rico’s job count edged down 1,500. Yet again there was insufficient information to compute the (seasonally-adjusted) unemployment rate on the island.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Dec 29 2022

  State Coincident Indexes in November 2022

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in November, showed softness, but on balance no more so, and arguably less, than in October. The indexes in 14 states dropped from October (little more than half the number that had one-month declines in the initial October results), all less than .5 percent. At the three-month horizon 12 states saw their index decline from August to November, but only 4 small-population ones (Vermont, Montana, Maine, and Rhode Island) clocked drops of more than .5 percent. However, large gains were also rare over these three months; a fairly moderate number (10) had gains of more than 1 percent (this group did include New York and Florida), with Hawaii’s 2.62 percent far and away the best. Over the past 12 months, 13 states (including California, New York, and Florida) had increase of at least 5 percent, but this count is also down from the first October results. 4 states (Arizona, Montana, Mississippi, and Oklahoma) had increases under 2 percent.

  in November the independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 (.78 percent) and 12 (4.29 percent) months do not appear terribly out of line with the state figures.

  All states have set new peaks in this series in this expansion. Connecticut had been the last holdout, but the revised dataset shows that the Nutmeg state exceeded the old mark in July.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Dec 23 2022

  State GDP and Personal Income

  State real GDP growth ranged from Alaska's 8.7 percent annual rate to Mississippi's -0.7 percent. States in the West grew more rapidly, while softness was more evident in the central part of the nation. In general, energy-producing states like Alaska fared best--Texas's number 2 8.2 percent growth rate was nearly half the result of increased mining output—while farm-oriented states were weaker. The Dakotas are the real exemplars of this effect: ex-mining, North Dakota's 5.2 percent growth rate would have been close to South Dakota-s -0.5 percent rate of decline. ranged widely in 2022: Q2.

  Looking at industry contributions, major sources of declines were construction, nondurable goods manufacturing, and wholesale trade (all three down in every state). A large pickup in accommodations and food services was arithmetically responsible for Hawaii being one of the few states with a real GDP increase.

  State personal income growth ran the gamut from Colorado's 14.2 percent growth rate to Indiana's 1.9 percent. Maine and New Mexico, along with Colorado, saw astonishing rates of growth in transfer payments, while Indiana was held down by a drop in that income category. “Net earnings” (employee compensation plus proprietors' income) was much evener, with Texas's growth rate of 8.5 percent at the top and Indiana's 3.2 percent the lowest.

  Last week the numbers on 2021 nominal and real personal consumption and real personal income by state were issued. The high for real spending growth was Utah's 12.5 percent, while West Virginia's 2.0 percent was the low. Numbers of states in the Rocky Mountains had growth exceeding 10 percent, as did Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Florida. West Virginia and Alaska (3.1 percent) were considerable outliers on the low side: no other state was under 5 percent.

  The availability of both nominal and real consumer spending figures allows for the computation of state consumption price deflators and their growth. The range of growth went from Vermont's 0.5 percent to West Virginia's 8.1. Other New England states—Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, and Connecticut—also saw deflator growth under 2 percent., while Arizona Nevada, and New Mexico were also on the low side. Other high growth states included Alaska and South Carolina (North Carolina was also high). Differences in state deflators, and their growth, would largely reflect differences in service costs (as one would expect, Alaska and Hawaii have the largest divergence in good price levels), especially housing, but also utilities. Thus, it isn't surprising that there is some regional theme to divergences.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Dec 16 2022

  State Labor Markets in November 2022

  State labor market results in November continue to show lessened improvement and, in some measures, some softening. Eight states had statistically significant increases in payrolls. West Virginia saw a 1 percent gain, and New Hampshire’s .6 percent was the only other gain higher than ½ percent. Florida saw the largest numerical increase. Its 28,100 is fairly small compared to earlier months, where the leaders generally with state pickups of more than 50,000 Over the last 12 months, every state (and DC) saw a gain in payrolls, but in six cases (as well as in DC) the increases were not seen as statistically significant. Texas’s 5.1 percent gain over this period was the largest.

  12 states saw statistically significant increases in their unemployment rates from October to November, but none larger and .3 percentage point. Three states, and DC, had statistically significant declines, none greater than .2 percentage point. Nevada’s 4.9 percent rate was the nation’s highest, with DC and Illinois also posting rates above 4.5 percent; Utah’s 2.2 percent the lowest, with Minnesota and both Dakotas the other ones with rates under 2.5 percent (in October seven states had rates of 2.4 percent or lower).

  Puerto Rico's job count rose by more than 4,000, but once again there was insufficient information to compute the (seasonally-adjusted) unemployment rate on the island.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Nov 23 2022

  State Coincident Indexes in October 2022

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in October softened, with only 23 states reporting gains from September, one (California) unchanged, and 26 seeing declines. Maryland’s index fell more than 1 percent, while number 1 Hawaii was up only .77 percent, which is fairly modest for a leader. At the three-month horizon, eleven states were down, with Maine and Montana off by more than 1 percent and West Virginia just short of that (.99 percent). On the upside, Hawaii and Alaska saw increases of more than 2 percent. Over the past 12 months, Massachusetts’s index was up nearly 9 percent, and 18 other states had increase of at least 5 percent Both Mississippi and Oklahoma had increases of less than 2 percent over this period. In all cases noted (growth at the top, numbers growing slowly and rapidly) the October results were less robust than September’s initial numbers.

  Yet again, the independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 (.69 percent) and 12 (4.60 percent) months look weaker than the state figures would imply. These results were also lower than in the initial September report.

  Hawaii has surpassed its pre-pandemic peak in this series; Connecticut is still short, by the smallest of margins. Connecticut’s index dropped in October, but its revised September reading was 121.49. The state’s peak was 121.50 in March 2020.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Nov 18 2022

  State Labor Markets in October 2022

  State labor market results in October were softer than in the last couple of years, though not very weak. Seven states had statistically significant increases in payrolls, with Colorado’s .8 percent gain the largest in those terms. California picked up more than 50,000 jobs, and Texas slightly short of that. Over the last 12 months, every state (and DC) saw a gain in payrolls, thought the increases in Alaska, DC, Mississippi, and Wyoming were not deemed to be statistically significant. Florida and Texas were the only states to see gains of at least 5.0 percent (California’s absolute increase was a hair larger than Texas’s.

  A full 24 states experienced statistically significant increases in their unemployment rates from September to October (Pennsylvania’s fell .1 percentage point to 4.0 percent), but in the vast majority of cases these were, in absolute terms, fairly modest. Only Maryland’s .5 percentage point rise (from 4.0 to 4.5 percent) would normally be considered large. Unemployment rates remain fairly low across the nation DC’s rate is the highest tin the nation, at 4.8 percent, while Illinois and Nevada are both at 4.6 percent. Seven states have rates of 2.4 percent or lower.

  Puerto Rico’s job count was little-changed, and for a second straight month there was insufficient information to compute the unemployment rate on the island.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Oct 27 2022

  State Coincident Indexes in September 2022

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's state coincident indexes in September were again somewhat softer than earlier, and somewhat dispersed. 11 states report declines from August to September, with Montana down .59 percent. On the plus side, both Hawaii and New Jersey clocked increases above 1 percent and New York was just shy at .99 (the Northeast was strong, with Massachusetts and Maryland both comparable to New York, and Pennsylvania at .59 percent). At the three-month horizon, six states declined, with West Virginia and Montana, as in the initial August report, both off by more than one percent. Hawaii and Indiana both had increases above 2 percent. Over the past 12 months, Massachusetts's index was up more than 9 1/2 percent, and 25 other states had increase of at least 5 percent. Four states (Arizona, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, and Mississippi) had increases of less than 3 percent over this period.

  As always seems to be the case, the independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 (1.02 percent) and 12 (4.98 percent) months look weaker than the state figures would imply.

  Connecticut and Hawaii remain under-by very small margins--their pre-pandemic peaks in this series.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Oct 21 2022

  State Labor Markets in September 2022

  State labor market results in September were on the whole mixed. Only 9 states experienced statistically significant increases in payrolls, with New Hampshire's .8 percent gain the only one larger than ½ of one percent; however, Delaware saw a statistically significant drop of .6 percent. On the positive side Florida gained 48,800 jobs and Texas picked up 40,000. Over the last 12 months, every state (and DC) saw a gain in payrolls, though in Mississippi the increase was not deemed to be statistically significant. Texas's 5.6 increase was (again) the largest, Louisiana saw a 5.2 percent increased, Florida was up 5.1 percent, and Georgia 5.0 percent. Aside from Mississippi, Ohio had the smallest increase (1.7 percent).

  11 states saw statistically significant increases in their unemployment rates in September, but the largest was only .3 percentage point (Rhode Island, form 2.8 to 3.1 percent). 9 states saw statistically significant declines, led by New Jersey's .7 percentage point plunge (more or less evenly split between an increase in employment and a drop in the labor force). The range of state unemployment rates is now fairly narrow—from Minnesota's 2.0 percent to Alaska's 4.4 (the latter is a record low for the state). DC's rate was 4.7 percent.

  Hurricane Fiona prevented the computation of Puerto Rico's September labor force and unemployment data. Payrolls on the island were virtually unchanged (the pont estimate was down 100).

  Viewpoint commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Sep 30 2022

  State GDP and Personal Income

  State real GDP growth ranged widely in 2022: Q2. 40 states saw declines, with Wyoming’s -4.8 percent rate the lowest. However, there were also a number of increases, led by Tezas’s 1.8 percent. The diversity can be best illustrated by noting that Connecticut, a state will very little in common with Wyoming, saw a comparable decline (-4.7 percent). Moreover, West Virginia, like Wyoming heavily dependent on coal production, had a 1.4 percent growth rate. Some of the price increases were also interesting: North Dakota’s current-dollar GDP rose at a spectacular 30.5 percent rate, while its real output fell at a 0.7 percent rate, meaning that the state’s GDP deflator rose at a rate above 31 percent—obviously, a reflection of the spring surge in oil prices.

  Looking at industry contributions, major sources of declines were construction, nondurable goods manufacturing, and wholesale trade (all three down in every state). A large pickup in accommodations and food services was arithmetically responsible for Hawaii being one of the few states with a real GDP increase.

  State personal income and GDP are now reported in the same release. Q2 growth rates ranged from 10.9 percent in North Dakota (oil prices again at work) to Connecticut’s 2.2 percent.

  Viewpoint commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Sep 21 2022

  State Coincident Indexes in August 2022

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's state coincident indexes in August were more dispersed, and generally softer, than in recent months, though the general pattern still shows substantive growth. A full 15 states recorded declines from July, with West Virginia down .84 percent. Four states, all in the South had increases above .5 percent, with South Carolina's .59 percent the highest. At the three-month horizon, four states declined, with West Virginia and Montana off by more than one percent. At the top, only North Dakota and Massachusetts had gains over 2 percent. Over the past 12 months, Massachusetts's index was up more than 10 percent, and 28 other states had increase of at least 5 percent. Mississippi was the only state with its index increasing less than 3 percent over this period.

  Yet again, the independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 (.85 percent) and 12 (5.14 percent) months look weaker than the state figures would imply.

  Connecticut and Hawaii remain the only states that have not yet passed their pre-pandemic peaks in this series.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints