Personal incomes growth varied widely across the states in 2021:Q4, in large part reflecting great differences in the growth of transfer payments, in turn owing to varying effects of the wind-down of pandemic-related federal unemployment insurance benefits. In addition, the growth of net earnings (employee wages and benefits plus proprietors' income) also differed quite substantially. Texas reported the fastest income growth rate: 9.2 percent, compared to the national figure of 2.4 percent. Texas benefited from rapid growth of net earnings (13.4 percent, at an annual rate, which was tops in the nation) and relatively little deterioration of transfers (-3.6 percent, compared to the national -17.5 percent rate of decline). In very sharp contrast, personal income fell as an 8.7 percent rate in North Dakota, as net earnings plunged at a 15.2 percent rate (transfers rose at a 4.6 percent rate in North Dakota). Developments were similar in other Plains States—declines or weak growth in earnings, with farm incomes down substantially, held down overall personal income, while the rate of decline for transfers was less that elsewhere (in some states other than North Dakota, transfers rose). In Texas's Southwest region transfers were relatively strong (or relatively less weak) and net earnings were strong. In the Far West and New England earnings were strong and transfers were weak. Looking more granularly at income generation, once again the recovery in travel led to enormous increases in income generated in leisure and hospitality in Nevada and Hawaii, but in both states large drops in transfer payments meant that overall personal income growth was relatively unimpressive.
Introducing
Charles Steindel
in:Our Authors
Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.
Publications by Charles Steindel
- USA| Mar 23 2022
State Personal Income in Q4 2021
|in:Viewpoints
- USA| Mar 14 2022
State Labor Markets in January 2022
State payroll were generally modestly changed in January. Only 9 states reported statistically significant increases from December; the rest did not statistically significant moves of any size (the sum of the state increases was only 340,000, compared to the 481,000 increase reported in the national survey). California (53,600), New York (36,800), Pennsylvania (20,000), Georgia (19,400), and Ohio (18,600) had the largest increases, while Kansas and Maine had boosts of .6 percent.
Virtually all states saw job growth over the last 12 months. California picked up well over 1 million jobs; Nevada saw a 10.3 percent increase. Job gains were most notable from Texas west and in parts of the Northeast as well as Michigan and Florida; job growth was soft in the Plains.
19 states saw statistically significant drops in their unemployment rates in January (none larger than .3 percentage point), while Connecticut and DC saw increases of .2 percentage point. The range of unemployment across the nation has narrowed, in part reflecting revisions to recent numbers announced on March 2 (for instance, New Jersey's unemployment rate was reduced about 1 percentage point). Aside from DC's 6.3 percent, the highest rate in January was New Mexico's 5.9 percent, and Nebraska and Utah's 2.2 percent were the lowest. 10 states set new unemployment record lows.
Puerto Rico's unemployment rate fell from 7.5 percent in December to 7.1 percent in January, setting another new record low. The island's job count grew 7,600, and is now higher than its pre-Maria level, though still more than 150,000 under its 2005 peak. Gains over the past year have been most evident in retailing and leisure and hospitality, perhaps reflecting revived tourism.
|in:Viewpoints
- USA| Dec 23 2021
State GDP in 2021:Q3
Estimates of state real GDP growth varied fairly substantially in 2021:Q3. 13 states saw outright declines; these were mainly commodity (energy and agriculture) intensive ones, but oddly New Hampshire—pretty far from either camp—was the weakest state in the nation, with a 3.3% rate of decline (the Granite State had a massive collapse in government output).
In general, states bordering salt water were stronger than the nation, though that should be taken as more of a curiosity than something of analytical value (aside from New Hampshire, Alaska and Louisiana had negative growth rate). Hawaii's 6.0% rate of growth was the highest in the nation, Delaware was second at 4.7%, DC's figure was 3.9%, and Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Florida all had 3.7% growth rates. By industry, commodity production was generally weak, as was construction, manufacturing, and trade (wholesale and retail). Other sectors generally rose (New Hampshire's strange government decline was almost unique, North Dakota and North Carolina were the only other states not to see increases in government output, and the drops there were much smaller.
|in:Viewpoints
Global| Jun 29 2021State Coincident Indexes in May
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's state coincident indexes in May showed increased divergence in the pace of recovery across the nation. In the three months ending in May two states (Alaska and Wyoming) registered declines, [...]
|in:Viewpoints
- Global| Jun 25 2021
State GDP in 2021:Q1
Real GDP growth by state in Q1 was fairly uniform in the first quarter. 46 states are estimated to have had annual real growth rates between 4.3 and 7.9 percent. Four were stronger: Nevada, whose 10.9 percent was the leader, Utah, New [...]
|in:Viewpoints
- Global| Jun 23 2021
State Labor Markets Modestly Firmer in May
State job growth picked up somewhat in May following the lackluster April numbers. BLS reports that 14 states saw statistically significant increases in payroll employment. The gains were somewhat concentrated, in that California saw [...]
|in:Viewpoints
- Global| Jun 22 2021
State Personal Income in Q1 2021
State personal incomes grew at spectacular rates in 2021:Q1, reflecting the disbursement of Federal transfers. Unsurprisingly, aggregate growth rates were strongest in poor states, where flat dollar transfers made a larger different: [...]
|in:Viewpoints
- Global| May 26 2021
State Coincident Indexes in April
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's state coincident indexes in April show widespread dispersion of activity. In the three months ending in April the indexes for 49 states increased (Delaware again inched down). 15 states, [...]
|in:Viewpoints
- Global| May 21 2021
State Labor Markets in April
Job growth was generally modest across the states in April, corresponding to the muted national figure. California was an outlier, with a strong payroll gain of nearly 102,000 (0.8 percent). Hawaii’s job count grew a vigorous 1.8 [...]
|in:Viewpoints
- Global| Apr 23 2021
State Coincident Indexes in March
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's state coincident indexes in March show widespread recovery, though with some choppiness. In the three months ending in March the indexes for 49 states increased (Delaware inched down). [...]
|in:Viewpoints
- Global| Apr 23 2021
State Labor Markets in March
The pace of improvement in state labor markets in March was varied. Despite the very large increase in national payrolls, only 29 states reported statistically significant gains, though Alaska was the only state to register a (small [...]
- Global| Apr 16 2021
State Labor Markets in March
The pace of improvement in state labor markets in March was varied. Despite the very large increase in national payrolls, only 29 states reported statistically significant gains, though Alaska was the only state to register a (small [...]
- of16Go to 7 page