Introducing

Charles Steindel

Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.

Publications by Charles Steindel

• USA| Aug 24 2022

  State Coincident Indexes in July 2022

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's state coincident indexes in July were modestly dispersed, but arguably less so than in recent months. Only three states (Indiana, West Virginia, and Montana) are reported to have declined. Thirty states had increases between .25 and .75 percent. At the top, New Mexico, Massachusetts, and Nevada had gains higher than one percent. At the 3-month horizon Montana and Arkansas again saw drops, but only three others had gains of less than ½ of one percent, while 11 others had increases of less than one percent. Massachusetts was again the only state with an increase of more than three percent, and 8 others were above two percent. Over the last 12 months, it was again the case that every state had gains of at least 3 percent, with three (West Virginia, Massachusetts, and California) up more than 10 percent,

  As always seems to be the case, the independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 (1,1 percent) and 12 (5.6 percent) months look substantively weaker than the state figures.

  Connecticut and Hawaii are now the only states that have not yet passed their pre-pandemic peaks in this series.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Aug 19 2022

  State Labor Markets in July 2022

  State labor market results in June were generally strong. While 20 states had statistically significant increases in payrolls—led by Hawaii's 1.3 percent increase—2 saw significant declines. The outliers were Kentucky and Tennessee, and one suspects the flooding in that part of the nation played a role. Elsewhere, gains were more uniform. After Hawaii, the largest increases were .9 percent in Missouri and Arkansas. The largest absolute gain was California's 84,800. Over the last year all states had at least point increases in payrolls, though in a handful the gains weren't statistically significant. Alaska, Kansas, Vermont, and Wisconsin were the only states with increases less than 1 ½ percent. Texas's 5.8 percent gain (736,700) was the largest, though the absolute increase in California was very slightly larger.

  Fourteen states, plus DC, saw declines in their unemployment rates in July, led by a .4 percentage point drop in New Mexico. Indiana, Montana, and Nebraska had statistically significant modest increases. DC's rate in July was 5.2 percent, and Minnesota's was 1.8 percent. The other 49 states had rates in the 2.0 to 4.5 percent range.

  Puerto Rico's labor market also showed some improvement. The island gained 7,500 jobs (.8 percent) in July, and the unemployment rate fell to 5.9 percent—another record low for this series, which starts in 1976, and the first time the rate has been under 6 percent. However, the drop in the unemployment rate from June to July was an artifact of a decline in the labor force, as resident employment declined.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Jul 27 2022

  State Coincident Indexes in June 2022

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's state coincident indexes in June continued to show some dispersion. Six states declined, while Massachusetts was up slightly more than 1 percent. At the 3-month horizon Montana and Arkansas saw drops, while 5 others (except for Hawaii, all in the middle part of the nation) had increases less than ½ of one percent, and 8 more had gains between ½ and one percent. Massachusetts, though, was up nearly 3 percent, and 5 other states clocked gains above 2 percent. Over the last 12 months, every state had gains of at least 3 percent, and 6 were up more than 10 percent, with West Virginia again number one, with a 13.5 percent increase.

  Yet again, the independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 (.9 percent) and 12 (5.5 percent) months look substantively weaker than the state figures (in general, the weaker states were on the small side).

  Michigan set a new monthly high in June, leaving Connecticut, Hawaii, and Louisiana as the only states that have not yet passed their pre-pandemic peaks in this series.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Jul 22 2022

  State Labor Markets in June 2022

  State labor market results in June were again somewhat mixed. 13 states had statistically significant increases in payrolls, but only 2 were striking in percentage terms (Montana's .9 percent and Tennessee's 1.0 percent). Texas's 82,500 gain was a smaller .6 percent. Two states (Alaska and West Virginia) had statistically significant declines. All states had at least point increases in payrolls over the last year, but the increases in Vermont, Ohio, Alabama, Louisiana, Wisconsin, and Kansas were less than 2 percent. On the other hand, California added more than 850,000 jobs (a 5.1 percent increase) and Texas nearly 780,000 (a 6.1 percent gain), while Nevada's increase was 6.6 percent.

  Unemployment rates were little-changed. Missouri was the only state to see a .3 percentage point decline. Interstate variation in unemployment is now fairly narrow. Minnesota's 1.8 percent was the lowest in June, while no state was at or above 5 percent (DC, though, had a 5.5 percent rate).

  Puerto Rico's improvement ebbed in June. Nonfarm payrolls fell, apparently reflecting a drop in government employment. The island's unemployment rate fell to 6.1 percent, but both the labor force and resident employment declined.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Jun 30 2022

  State GDP in 2022:Q1

  Almost all states saw their real GDP fall in 2022:Q1. The exceptions were New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, and Michigan (New Hampshire was first with a modest 1.2 percent growth rate.) .

  The GDP declines were generally most notable in energy and mining-intensive states, with Wyoming’s output plunging at a 9.7% annual rate, Alaska down 8.2%, North Dakota ,6.3%, West Virginia, 6.1%, New Mexico, 4.7%, Louisiana, 4.3%, Montana, 3.8%, and Oklahoma, 3.7%. Wisconsin, Maryland, and Connecticut had rates of decline very near zero. Elsewhere, only the declines in Hawaii (-3.5%) and Washington (-3.3%) look notably out of like with the nation’s 1.6% rate of decline.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Jun 29 2022

  State Coincident Indexes in May 2022

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's state coincident indexes in May showed some dispersion. Five states had no gains, or losses, in May (Michigan, Arizona, Hawaii, Montana, and Arkansas), while West Virginia, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Maryland were all up by more than 1 percent. The relative strength of the Northeast was also evident at the 3-month horizon, with Massachusetts, Maryland, West Virginia, and Rhode Island rising more than 3 percent. While 12 states—none in the Northeast—had increased of less than 1 percent. Over the last 12 months, every state had gains of at least 3 percent, but 6 (including California and New York) were up more than 10 percent, with West Virginia's 15.2 percent far and away the highest.

  As is chronically the case, the independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 (1.3 percent) and 6 (6.0 percent) months look substantively weaker than the state figures.

  It remains the case that Connecticut, Hawaii, Louisiana, and Michigan are the only states that have not yet matched their pre-pandemic highs in this series.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Jun 22 2022

  State Personal Income in Q1 2022

  Personal incomes growth again varied widely across the states in 2022:Q1, with large differences in both the growth of transfer payments (reflecting idiosyncratic impacts of the wide-down of COVID relief) and net earnings The fastest rate of growth was South Dakota’s 8.5 percent, while the lowest was Hawaii’s 1.3 percent. Growth was fastest in the Great Plains and New England; slowest in the Southwest. The distribution of net earnings was somewhat different. The Plains—aided by sharp increases in farm income--and New England remain the strongest regions there, but the weakest was the Mideast. In the Mideast overall personal income grew at the national average of 4.8 percent. The drop in transfers was less marked than the national average, and the growth of property income was larger. In the Southwest, net earnings growth was greater than the national average, but property income rose less rapidly and transfers fell more.

  In other industry detail, the boom in incomes generated in leisure and hospitality was over in the first quarter, with Nevada the only state seeing especially marked gains.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Jun 17 2022

  State Labor Markets in May 2022

  State payrolls were not as strong in May as in recent months. Only 7 states had statistically significant increases, while 3 report declines. Texas had the largest gain (74,200) while West Virginia jobs rose 1.3 percent. On the other side, Alaska shed 4,400 jo15 bs (1.4 percent), Wyoming lost 2,800 (1.0 percent) and Michigan payrolls fell 14,600. Over the last year, Alaska and Wyoming were the only localities that did not show statistically significant job growth (Alaska's point estimate edged down). Both California and Texas had job growth exceeding three-quarters of a million in that period, and Nevada had a 7.1 percent increase. Aside from Alaska and Wyoming, Wisconsin was the only state with job growth under 2 percent.

  16 states saw statistically significant drops in their unemployment rate in their unemployment rates in May, with a number (California, Iowa, Missouri, and Rhode Island) reporting declines of .3 percentage points. The range of unemployment rates across the nation continues to narrow. Nebraska continues to have a 1.9 percent rate; the highs continue to be DC (5.7 percent) and New Mexico (5.1 percent), but in both cases May's number was lower than April's.

  Puerto Rico's recovery is ongoing, with a small (likely statistically insignificant) increase in payrolls, and the unemployment rate moving down to 6.2 percent.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| May 25 2022

  State Coincident Indexes in April 2022

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's state coincident indexes in April were again almost uniformly strong, with every state seeing gains over the one-, three-, and twelve-month horizons. Over the three months since January Maryland's index rose more than 4 percent, and only 4 had growth less than 1 percent (Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arizona, and Mississippi). The independently estimated national figure of 1.1 percent growth over this period was, yet again inconsistent with the state numbers.

  Over the last 12 months 6 states registered gains higher than 10 percent, led by West Virginia's 14.3 percent. Yet again, New York and California were in this group, and the 5.7 percent national figure was not representative of the individual state outcomes.

  Maryland's 1.5 percent gain was the highest between March and April, and 5 other states saw increases above 1 percent. On the other side, 7 had gains less than .25 percent.

  Nearly all the states set new record highs in April. However, Connecticut, Hawaii, Louisiana, and Michigan (the latter just barely) have yet to match their pre-pandemic highs.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| May 20 2022

  State Labor Markets in April 2022

  State payrolls were positive in April, with gains comparable to those in March. 11 states saw statistically significant increases from March, with New Hampshire’s 1.0 percent gain the largest. In absolute numbers Texas’s 62,800 increase was the largest. As was the case in the initial March estimates, over the last 12 months 49 states and the District Columbia had statistically significant increases in payroll employment. Delaware was the odd-man out, even though the April 2022 point estimate was more than 1 percent higher than the April 2021 figure). Aside from Delaware, Alabama, Kansas, and Wisconsin were the only states with gains less than 2 percent over that period. Nevada has seen an 8 percent rise, and the aggregate job increase in California was 925,000.

  13 states and DC saw statistically significant drops in their unemployment rate in their unemployment rates in April, with Maryland’s .4 percentage point decline being the largest. The range of unemployment rates across the nation is no longer pronounced. Nebraska and Utah both have 1.9 percent rates; the highs are DC’s 5.8 and New Mexico’s 5.3.

  Puerto Rico had another solid month, with a 4,700 gain in jobs and the unemployment rate ticking down to 6.4 percent.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Mar 31 2022

  State Coincident Indexes in February

  State real GDP growth continued to be in a wide range in 2021:Q4. Nine states grew at rates equal to or exceeding 8 percent, led by Texas's 10.1 percent. However, 3 states (North Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa) registered declines in output. Again, as was the case in the third quarter, marked declines in agriculture held down the Plains states. Sharp gains in accommodations and food services contributed markedly to growth in Hawaii and Nevada, and a few other states, none of which stand out immediately as major travel destinations (Connecticut, New Hampshire, Vermont, Tennessee, and New Mexico). New York, which has had difficulties reviving tourism, saw that sector decline in the fourth quarter.

  The broad contours of growth in the fourth quarter were comparable to those for 2021 as a whole. In general—though there are some exceptions on both sides—state in the middle of the nation (the Middle West, Plains, and South Central) have been growing more slowly than those to the East and West. The Western states have been (again generally) the fastest growing, the South Atlantic is nearly as fast. The Northeast is mixed, with some states noticeably stronger than others (New York is a notable laggard).

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Mar 23 2022

  State Personal Income in Q4 2021

  Personal incomes growth varied widely across the states in 2021:Q4, in large part reflecting great differences in the growth of transfer payments, in turn owing to varying effects of the wind-down of pandemic-related federal unemployment insurance benefits. In addition, the growth of net earnings (employee wages and benefits plus proprietors' income) also differed quite substantially. Texas reported the fastest income growth rate: 9.2 percent, compared to the national figure of 2.4 percent. Texas benefited from rapid growth of net earnings (13.4 percent, at an annual rate, which was tops in the nation) and relatively little deterioration of transfers (-3.6 percent, compared to the national -17.5 percent rate of decline). In very sharp contrast, personal income fell as an 8.7 percent rate in North Dakota, as net earnings plunged at a 15.2 percent rate (transfers rose at a 4.6 percent rate in North Dakota). Developments were similar in other Plains States—declines or weak growth in earnings, with farm incomes down substantially, held down overall personal income, while the rate of decline for transfers was less that elsewhere (in some states other than North Dakota, transfers rose). In Texas's Southwest region transfers were relatively strong (or relatively less weak) and net earnings were strong. In the Far West and New England earnings were strong and transfers were weak. Looking more granularly at income generation, once again the recovery in travel led to enormous increases in income generated in leisure and hospitality in Nevada and Hawaii, but in both states large drops in transfer payments meant that overall personal income growth was relatively unimpressive.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints