The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimated that Q2 Nominal GDP declined 34.3% annualized, the largest quarterly drop in our lifetime. On March 12, I penned the article "Investors Should Brace for a Record Decline in GDP". Never [...]
Introducing
Joseph G. Carson
in:Our Authors
Joseph G. Carson, Former Director of Global Economic Research, Alliance Bernstein. Joseph G. Carson joined Alliance Bernstein in 2001. He oversaw the Economic Analysis team for Alliance Bernstein Fixed Income and has primary responsibility for the economic and interest-rate analysis of the US. Previously, Carson was chief economist of the Americas for UBS Warburg, where he was primarily responsible for forecasting the US economy and interest rates. From 1996 to 1999, he was chief US economist at Deutsche Bank. While there, Carson was named to the Institutional Investor All-Star Team for Fixed Income and ranked as one of Best Analysts and Economists by The Global Investor Fixed Income Survey. He began his professional career in 1977 as a staff economist for the chief economist’s office in the US Department of Commerce, where he was designated the department’s representative at the Council on Wage and Price Stability during President Carter’s voluntary wage and price guidelines program. In 1979, Carson joined General Motors as an analyst. He held a variety of roles at GM, including chief forecaster for North America and chief analyst in charge of production recommendations for the Truck Group. From 1981 to 1986, Carson served as vice president and senior economist for the Capital Markets Economics Group at Merrill Lynch. In 1986, he joined Chemical Bank; he later became its chief economist. From 1992 to 1996, Carson served as chief economist at Dean Witter, where he sat on the investment-policy and stock-selection committees. He received his BA and MA from Youngstown State University and did his PhD coursework at George Washington University. Honorary Doctorate Degree, Business Administration Youngstown State University 2016. Location: New York.
Publications by Joseph G. Carson
Global| Jul 30 2020Biggest Decline in Nominal Output & Income In Our Lifetime
|in:Viewpoints
- Global| Jul 24 2020
2020 Is The Most Overvalued Equity Market In Our Lifetime
At the end of Q2, the market valuation of domestic companies relative to nominal GDP exceeded the tech bubble peak of Q1 2000. In other words, "2020 is the Most Overvalued Equity Market in Our Lifetime". Domestic Market Capitalization [...]
|in:Viewpoints
- Global| Jul 20 2020
Pandemic-Driven Recession Is Not Over
Back-to-back strong monthly gains in retail sales in May and June and a powerful rebound in the equity markets in Q2 create the impression the recession is over. But the recessionary environment is only delayed, hidden by the record [...]
|in:Viewpoints
In Q2, federal withheld income tax receipts declined a record 25% from the same period one year ago. That's twice the reported decline in Q2 household and payroll employment. The sharper plunge in tax receipts is puzzling because the [...]
|in:Viewpoints
- Global| Jul 02 2020
The Economic "Bounce" Is In: What's Next?
Both the employment report and the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) survey of manufacturers for June show a strong "bounce" in jobs and new orders from very depressed levels. The financial markets view the data as another sign of [...]
|in:Viewpoints
- Global| Jun 23 2020
The Federal Reserve's Debt Problem
The Federal Reserve has a debt problem. It's not their debt. It's the record debt of the private and public sector that the Federal Reserve has helped fuel and sponsor during the pandemic crisis. Directly and indirectly, the Fed is [...]
- Global| Jun 16 2020
BLS Failed Its Mandate: "Fearless Publication of the Facts" (Part 2)
Mr. Cohen criticized my article of June 8, BLS Failed Its Mandate: "Fearless Publication of the Facts", stating my arguments were "exaggerated, misleading, and inaccurate". Let me respond to Mr. Cohen's key points. First, the data in [...]
|in:Viewpoints
- Global| Jun 11 2020
Federal Tax Receipts Show A Record Plunge in May: Raising More Doubts About the Employment Data
The Monthly Treasury Statement for May showed federal withheld income tax receipts falling a record 33% from the comparable period one year ago. The decline in May tax receipts exceeds the 30% decline in April. Monthly tax (gross) [...]
|in:Viewpoints
- Global| Jun 08 2020
BLS Failed Its Mandate: "Fearless Publication of the Facts"
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) first commissioner Mr. Carroll D. Wright described the agency mandate, "Fearless Publication of the Facts". By its admission, BLS failed to live up to its mandate as it published two employment [...]
|in:Viewpoints
- Global| Jun 05 2020
Bombshell---Jobless Rate Falls Even As Millions More File Jobless Claims
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the jobless rate fell 1.4 percentage points to 13.3%. The May numbers bettered consensus expectations by the largest margin in history as analysts (including me) expected the jobless [...]
|in:Viewpoints
In May, the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) released two surveys on manufacturing. The message is bleak; the contraction in activity remains sharp and firms expect a record decline in revenues and capital expenditures for 2020. [...]
|in:Viewpoints
- Global| May 26 2020
Something's Wrong: A Debt-Financed Recession
The Fed's debt-bridge policy is designed to improve the flow of credit to businesses to avoid a devastating credit crunch. Never before has one of the monetary policy solutions to combat recession been to extend credit to struggling, [...]
|in:Viewpoints
- of18Go to 10 page