The Federal Reserve's new policy of inflation "averaging" is a mistake. The trade-off nowadays is between inflation and financial stability. Buying more inflation will eventually create financial imbalances that over time will [...]
Introducing
Joseph G. Carson
in:Our Authors
Joseph G. Carson, Former Director of Global Economic Research, Alliance Bernstein. Joseph G. Carson joined Alliance Bernstein in 2001. He oversaw the Economic Analysis team for Alliance Bernstein Fixed Income and has primary responsibility for the economic and interest-rate analysis of the US. Previously, Carson was chief economist of the Americas for UBS Warburg, where he was primarily responsible for forecasting the US economy and interest rates. From 1996 to 1999, he was chief US economist at Deutsche Bank. While there, Carson was named to the Institutional Investor All-Star Team for Fixed Income and ranked as one of Best Analysts and Economists by The Global Investor Fixed Income Survey. He began his professional career in 1977 as a staff economist for the chief economist’s office in the US Department of Commerce, where he was designated the department’s representative at the Council on Wage and Price Stability during President Carter’s voluntary wage and price guidelines program. In 1979, Carson joined General Motors as an analyst. He held a variety of roles at GM, including chief forecaster for North America and chief analyst in charge of production recommendations for the Truck Group. From 1981 to 1986, Carson served as vice president and senior economist for the Capital Markets Economics Group at Merrill Lynch. In 1986, he joined Chemical Bank; he later became its chief economist. From 1992 to 1996, Carson served as chief economist at Dean Witter, where he sat on the investment-policy and stock-selection committees. He received his BA and MA from Youngstown State University and did his PhD coursework at George Washington University. Honorary Doctorate Degree, Business Administration Youngstown State University 2016. Location: New York.
Publications by Joseph G. Carson
Global| Aug 28 2020"Buying" More Inflation Is A Policy Mistake
|in:Viewpoints
- Global| Aug 26 2020
Earth To Fed: Inflation Mandate Has Been Met
At this week's Fed's annual Jackson Hole conference Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to announce a new policy approach that is intended to give policymakers more flexibility and time to achieve their inflation [...]
|in:Viewpoints
- Global| Aug 20 2020
Taking Away the "Punch Bowl": Risk of Hard Landing in Consumer Spending
With each passing day, the failure of Congress and the Administration to reach a deal on extending fiscal stimulus creates a bigger and bigger hole in consumer cash flow. So far investors have brushed off the stalemate. But that’s a [...]
|in:Viewpoints
- Global| Aug 17 2020
New Normal In Consumer Spending: Spending On Goods Up & Services Down
Retail sales hit new record highs in June and again in July. Record retail sales reflect a new normal in consumer spending patterns. Bans and restrictions emanating from the pandemic have boosted retail sales while curtailing spending [...]
|in:Viewpoints
Failure to reach a compromise on a broad federal stimulus plan creates a big "hole" in consumer’s cash flow. The "hole" is so big it raises the risk of substantial reduction, if not a recession, in consumer spending in the coming [...]
|in:Viewpoints
- Global| Aug 10 2020
Chaos In Governing During A Crisis Creates More Problems Than It Solves
With negotiations over new federal stimulus deadlocked, President Trump signed four executive measures that circumvent Congress's constitutional authority to tax and spend. Chaos in governing has been a trademark of the Trump [...]
|in:Viewpoints
- Global| Jul 30 2020
Biggest Decline in Nominal Output & Income In Our Lifetime
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimated that Q2 Nominal GDP declined 34.3% annualized, the largest quarterly drop in our lifetime. On March 12, I penned the article "Investors Should Brace for a Record Decline in GDP". Never [...]
|in:Viewpoints
- Global| Jul 24 2020
2020 Is The Most Overvalued Equity Market In Our Lifetime
At the end of Q2, the market valuation of domestic companies relative to nominal GDP exceeded the tech bubble peak of Q1 2000. In other words, "2020 is the Most Overvalued Equity Market in Our Lifetime". Domestic Market Capitalization [...]
|in:Viewpoints
- Global| Jul 20 2020
Pandemic-Driven Recession Is Not Over
Back-to-back strong monthly gains in retail sales in May and June and a powerful rebound in the equity markets in Q2 create the impression the recession is over. But the recessionary environment is only delayed, hidden by the record [...]
|in:Viewpoints
In Q2, federal withheld income tax receipts declined a record 25% from the same period one year ago. That's twice the reported decline in Q2 household and payroll employment. The sharper plunge in tax receipts is puzzling because the [...]
|in:Viewpoints
- Global| Jul 02 2020
The Economic "Bounce" Is In: What's Next?
Both the employment report and the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) survey of manufacturers for June show a strong "bounce" in jobs and new orders from very depressed levels. The financial markets view the data as another sign of [...]
|in:Viewpoints
- Global| Jun 23 2020
The Federal Reserve's Debt Problem
The Federal Reserve has a debt problem. It's not their debt. It's the record debt of the private and public sector that the Federal Reserve has helped fuel and sponsor during the pandemic crisis. Directly and indirectly, the Fed is [...]
- of18Go to 10 page