The spotlight on inflation has never been higher as the Federal Reserve made it the primary focus of monetary policy. That means price statistics must be relevant to the needs of policymakers as accurate price measures are necessary [...]
Introducing
Joseph G. Carson
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Joseph G. Carson, Former Director of Global Economic Research, Alliance Bernstein. Joseph G. Carson joined Alliance Bernstein in 2001. He oversaw the Economic Analysis team for Alliance Bernstein Fixed Income and has primary responsibility for the economic and interest-rate analysis of the US. Previously, Carson was chief economist of the Americas for UBS Warburg, where he was primarily responsible for forecasting the US economy and interest rates. From 1996 to 1999, he was chief US economist at Deutsche Bank. While there, Carson was named to the Institutional Investor All-Star Team for Fixed Income and ranked as one of Best Analysts and Economists by The Global Investor Fixed Income Survey. He began his professional career in 1977 as a staff economist for the chief economist’s office in the US Department of Commerce, where he was designated the department’s representative at the Council on Wage and Price Stability during President Carter’s voluntary wage and price guidelines program. In 1979, Carson joined General Motors as an analyst. He held a variety of roles at GM, including chief forecaster for North America and chief analyst in charge of production recommendations for the Truck Group. From 1981 to 1986, Carson served as vice president and senior economist for the Capital Markets Economics Group at Merrill Lynch. In 1986, he joined Chemical Bank; he later became its chief economist. From 1992 to 1996, Carson served as chief economist at Dean Witter, where he sat on the investment-policy and stock-selection committees. He received his BA and MA from Youngstown State University and did his PhD coursework at George Washington University. Honorary Doctorate Degree, Business Administration Youngstown State University 2016. Location: New York.
Publications by Joseph G. Carson
Global| Oct 08 2020Inflation Measures Are Meaningless Without House Prices: But Their Use Produces Huge Distortions
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- Global| Oct 01 2020
Employment Data: What Accounts for the Big Gap Between ADP and the Official Jobs Data?
September's ADP employment report showed a gain of 749,000, following gains of 481,000 in August and 216,000 in July. While the focus of this month's report is on the large September's gain, the bigger issue is why ADP did not revise [...]
- Global| Sep 17 2020
Retail Spending & Tax Data: Two Reasons Why The Administration Decided To Go Big On Another Stimulus
In a sudden reversal, the Trump Administration has given its blessing for a bigger stimulus plan. It was only a week or so ago when the White House National Economic Advisor stated the strong rebound in economic activity doesn't [...]
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- Global| Sep 14 2020
Liquidity Boom Fueled By Record Stimulus Has Ended: Equity Market Most Vulnerable
The liquidity boom fueled from record fiscal and monetary stimulus has disappeared. The unwind process will be uneven just as it was uneven on the upside when record stimulus flowed through portfolio, income, and spending channels. [...]
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- Global| Sep 08 2020
"Averaging" Inflation Does Not Eliminate The Flaws In The Fed's Policy Approach; It Compounds Them
Federal Reserve has spent over a year conducting a review of its monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication process. The review was an academic re-assessment of an academic experiment called inflation targeting. The new [...]
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- Global| Sep 02 2020
2020 Drop In Operating Profits Mirrors 2008: Different Mix Shows The Need For More Fiscal Support
The sharp drop in operating profits in 2020 mirrors the decline of 2008. But the mix of profits is markedly different, with the bulk of the decline centered in non-financial industries. The crisis of 2020 is centered more so in the [...]
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- Global| Aug 28 2020
"Buying" More Inflation Is A Policy Mistake
The Federal Reserve's new policy of inflation "averaging" is a mistake. The trade-off nowadays is between inflation and financial stability. Buying more inflation will eventually create financial imbalances that over time will [...]
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- Global| Aug 26 2020
Earth To Fed: Inflation Mandate Has Been Met
At this week's Fed's annual Jackson Hole conference Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to announce a new policy approach that is intended to give policymakers more flexibility and time to achieve their inflation [...]
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- Global| Aug 20 2020
Taking Away the "Punch Bowl": Risk of Hard Landing in Consumer Spending
With each passing day, the failure of Congress and the Administration to reach a deal on extending fiscal stimulus creates a bigger and bigger hole in consumer cash flow. So far investors have brushed off the stalemate. But that’s a [...]
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- Global| Aug 17 2020
New Normal In Consumer Spending: Spending On Goods Up & Services Down
Retail sales hit new record highs in June and again in July. Record retail sales reflect a new normal in consumer spending patterns. Bans and restrictions emanating from the pandemic have boosted retail sales while curtailing spending [...]
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Failure to reach a compromise on a broad federal stimulus plan creates a big "hole" in consumer’s cash flow. The "hole" is so big it raises the risk of substantial reduction, if not a recession, in consumer spending in the coming [...]
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- Global| Aug 10 2020
Chaos In Governing During A Crisis Creates More Problems Than It Solves
With negotiations over new federal stimulus deadlocked, President Trump signed four executive measures that circumvent Congress's constitutional authority to tax and spend. Chaos in governing has been a trademark of the Trump [...]
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