- IP +0.03% in Jan., -1.0% in Dec. (downwardly revised from -0.7%), -0.6% in Nov.
- Manufacturing IP (+1.0% in Jan.; downwardly revised for Dec.) rebounds after two straight m/m drops, w/ durable goods up 0.8% and nondurable goods up 1.1%.
- Utilities output decreases a record 9.9% after two consecutive m/m rises while mining activity increases 2.0% vs. two successive m/m declines.
- Consumer goods output falls for the fourth time in five months, but business equipment rebounds following two straight m/m drops.
- Capacity utilization dips 0.1%-pt. to 78.3%; mfg. capacity utilization rises 0.6%-pt. to 77.7%.
Introducing
Winnie Tapasanun
in:Our Authors
Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
Publications by Winnie Tapasanun
USA| Feb 15 2023U.S. Industrial Production Disappoints in January
USA| Feb 14 2023U.S. Small Business Optimism Rebounds in January
- January NFIB Optimism Index recovers 0.5 pts. to 90.3; its 13th straight month below the 49-year average of 98.
- Six of the 10 index components rebound.
- Uncertainty Index rises to 76 in Jan.; highest since July ’21.
- Outlook for business conditions in the next six months, while improving, remains in negative territory (a net negative 45%); expected real sales fall four pts. to a net negative 14%, a five-month low.
- Inflation as Single Most Important Problem, while down six pts. to 26%, remains top business concern.
- 55.2 in Jan. vs. 49.2 in Dec., showing expansions starting June ’20 except Dec. ’22.
- Increases in all the sub-indexes: business activity (60.4 vs. 53.5) expands for 32 straight months while new orders (60.4 vs. 45.2), employment (50.0 vs. 49.4) and supply deliveries (50.0 vs. 48.5) expand following their Dec. contractions.
- Prices index, still at a high level, falls to a two-year-low 67.8.
- Total December construction -0.4% (+7.7% y/y); upward revisions for November (+0.5%) and October (+0.05% from a decline).
- Residential private construction falls 0.3% (+1.7% y/y), down for seven straight months, led by a 2.3% drop (-14.7% y/y) in single-family building.
- Nonresidential private construction declines 0.5% (+15.0% y/y) following seven consecutive m/m rises.
- Public sector construction decreases 0.4% (+11.7% y/y), the first m/m decline in seven months, reflecting drops of 0.5% (-2.2% y/y) in residential public construction and 0.4% (+12.1% y/y) in nonresidential public construction.
- Index dips to 44.3 in Jan. from 45.1 in Dec.; declines in index components except production (up 8.5 pts.) and supplier deliveries (up 1.4 pts).
- New orders (40.6) contract for eight consecutive months while production (48.6) and employment (42.0) contract for five successive months.
- Inflation pressures rise w/ prices paid at a three-month-high 72.5.
USA| Jan 26 2023Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index in Negative Territory for the Fourth Consecutive Month in January
- Index rebounds to -1 in Jan. from -4 in Dec., w/ employment (4) holding steady in positive territory and new orders (-8) and production (-4) improving but remaining in negative territory.
- Price pressures increase somewhat in Jan., w/ the prices paid and prices received indexes up minimally.
- Expectations for future activity, while down slightly, remain in positive territory this month, w/ expected employment rising; however, the indexes for new orders for exports (-8) and finished goods inventories (-7) move into negative territory.
USA| Jan 26 2023U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Widens in December
- $90.27 billion deficit in December, larger than expected.
- Exports decline 1.6%, down for the fourth consecutive month.
- Imports rebound 1.9%, up for the third time in four months.
USA| Jan 18 2023U.S. Home Builder Index Unexpectedly Rebounds in January
- Home builder confidence improves to a three-month high after 12 straight m/m drops.
- All the three HMI components increase m/m with the largest in potential buyers' traffic (+15.0%).
- Regional increase is widespread with the biggest monthly gain in the West (+16.0%).
- December NFIB Optimism Index down 2.1 pts. to 89.8; its 12th straight month below the 49-year average of 98.
- Eight of the 10 index components decline.
- Uncertainty Index rebounds to 71 in Dec. after falling to a four-month low in Nov.
- Outlook for business conditions in the next six months worsens to the lowest level since July; expected real sales fall two pts. to a net negative 10%.
- Inflation remains top business concern.
- -4.0% m/m (-37.8% y/y) in Nov. vs. -4.7% m/m (-37.1% y/y) in Oct.
- November PHSI at 73.9, lowest since April 2020.
- Widespread m/m drops in all the major regions, w/ double-digit y/y falling rates.
- With mortgage rates declining, home-buying activity will likely rebound and help GDP growth in the near term.
-
$83.35 billion deficit in November, smaller than expected.
-
Exports decline 3.1%, down for the third straight month.
-
Imports fall 7.6% following two consecutive m/m rises.
-
-
Up 6.9 pts. to a higher-than-expected 108.3 in Dec.; highest since April.
-
Present Situation Index increases to a three-month-high 147.2 after two consecutive m/m declines.
-
Expectations Index recovers to 82.4, the highest level since Jan., following two successive m/m decreases, but recession risks persist.
-
Consumers more optimistic about the current business conditions and the short-term business conditions outlook; more upbeat about the present labor market and the short-term labor market outlook.
-
Inflation expectations retreat to their lowest level since Sept. '21.
-
- of21Go to 14 page