- -0.7% m/m in August, the second monthly drop since May 2020.
- House prices fall m/m in seven of nine census divisions; house prices in New England rebound while in the West North Central region house prices were unchanged.
Introducing
Winnie Tapasanun
in:Our Authors
Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
Publications by Winnie Tapasanun
- Import prices drop 1.2% w/ imported fuel prices down 7.5%.
- Excluding fuels, import prices decline 0.4%, down for the fifth straight month.
- Export prices fall 0.8% w/ ag export prices down 1.0% and nonag export prices down 0.9%.
- Year-over-year import and export price growth rates decelerate in September vs. August; import prices 6.0% vs. 7.8% and export prices 9.5% vs. 10.7%, their lowest since February 2021.
USA| Oct 07 2022Faster Than Expected U.S. Consumer Credit Growth in August
- Consumer credit growth $32.2 bil. in August, accelerating from $26.1 bil. in July and 18.2 bil. last August.
- Revolving credit usage strengthens.
- Nonrevolving credit growth remains firm.
USA| Oct 03 2022U.S. Construction Spending Drops More Than Expected in August
- Total August construction -0.7% (+8.5% y/y); July revised down to -0.6% but June revised up to +0.6% (from a drop).
- Residential private construction decreases 0.9% (+12.5% y/y), the third straight m/m decline, led by a 2.9% drop (-0.02% y/y) in single-family building.
- Nonresidential private construction edges down 0.1% (+5.5% y/y), the same m/m pace as July (revised down from a rise).
- Public sector construction declines 0.8% (+3.3% y/y), the first m/m slide since May, reflecting drops of 2.7% (-0.2% y/y) in residential public construction and 0.8% (+3.4% y/y) in nonresidential public construction.
USA| Sep 27 2022U.S. Consumer Confidence Rises in September; Highest Since April
- Up 4.4 pts. to higher-than-expected 108.0 in Sept., the second consecutive m/m rise following three straight m/m drops, supported by jobs, wages and falling gas prices.
- Present Situation Index increases for the second successive month, to a five-month-high 149.6, after falling from April through July.
- Expectations Index improves to 80.3, highest since February, but recession risks persist.
- Consumers more optimistic about the present labor market and the short-term labor market outlook.
- Inflation expectations, while continuing their retreat, remain high.
- The rising confidence possibly bodes well for consumer spending in Q4 '22, but inflation and interest-rate rises remain major factors to near-term economic growth.
USA| Sep 22 2022Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Indicates Sluggish Factory Activity in September
- Index drops to 1 in Sept., lowest since July '20, from 3 in Aug., w/ new orders in negative territory, shipments at 0, and production at 2.
- Employment remains at its lowest level since Dec. '20, albeit at a positive level.
- Inflation and rising interest rates are major concerns; prices indexes rebound.
- Expectations for future activity, while down, remain at a positive level.
- 4.800 mil. in August, lowest since May '20; 4.820 mil. in July (revised up from 4.810 mil.).
- Existing single-family home sales drop for the seventh consecutive month while condo & co-op sales rebound following six straight m/m declines.
- Regional sales patterns are mixed: sales in the Midwest fall for the fourth successive month; sales in the South hold steady; sales in the Northeast and the West rebound.
- Median price falls for the second consecutive month to the lowest level since March; broad-based regional price declines: prices in the South and the West fall for the third straight month while prices in the Northeast and the Midwest fall for the second successive month.
USA| Sep 15 2022U.S. Industrial Production Unexpectedly Declines in August
- IP -0.2% in August, +0.5% in July (revised down from +0.6%), 0.0% in June.
- Mfg. IP (only +0.1% in Aug.; downwardly revised for July and June) increases for the second consecutive month after two straight m/m drops, w/ durable goods virtually unchanged and nondurable goods up 0.2%.
- Motor vehicle output decreases 1.4%, the third m/m drop in four months, after a downwardly revised 3.2% July increase.
- Utilities output falls for the second successive month while mining activity holds steady.
- Consumer goods output declines for the third time in four months while business equipment rises for the second consecutive month.
- Capacity utilization eases 0.2%-pt. to 80.0%; mfg. capacity utilization unchanged at 79.6%.
- Affordability improves in July w/ the index up 3.1% to 102.2.
- Lower home prices & interest rates improve affordability.
- Median sales price of a home drops 2.4% to a three-month-low $410,600 from June's record high; mortgage payments fall from June's record high.
- Median family income declines for the first time since Sept. following nine straight m/m rises.
- New orders -1.0% in July following nine straight m/m rises; June revised down to +1.8%.
- Shipments decline 0.9%, led by a 1.9% drop in nondurable goods.
- Unfilled orders rise 0.7%, easing from June's 0.8%, while inventories increase a marginal 0.1%.
- Total July construction -0.4% m/m (+8.5% y/y); June and May revised up.
- Residential private construction drops 1.5% m/m (+14.1% y/y), the largest monthly decline since April '20, led by m/m drops of 4.0% in single-family building and 0.6% in multi-family building.
- Nonresidential private construction increases 0.4% m/m (3.1% y/y), up for the third straight month.
- Public sector construction rises 1.5% m/m (3.3% y/y), up for the sixth time in seven months, led by a 1.5% gain (3.3% y/y) in nonresidential public construction.
- Up 7.9 pts. to higher-than-expected 103.2 in August; the first m/m rise following three straight m/m drops.
- Present Situation Index at 145.4, the first m/m gain since March.
- Expectations Index at 75.1, the first m/m rise to the highest level since April, but still below 80, suggesting continued recession risks.
- Consumers generally less optimistic about the present labor market but more optimistic about the short-term labor market outlook.
- Inflation expectations, while continuing their retreat, remain elevated.
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