Viewpoints

Actual economic outcomes and not forecasted ones are the new policy of the Federal Reserve. Yet, this strategy's flaw is that it is limited to economic outcomes and overlooks or ignores financial ones. It is not a coincidence that the [...]

The Federal Reserve's new policy approach is that policymakers want to see "actual progress, not forecast progress" before deciding to change its policy stance. Substantial actual progress is occurring in the economy, some faster than [...]

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's state coincident indexes in January show a wide range of variation in the extent of recovery. In the three months ending in January 48 states showed gains (the exceptions were Maine and New [...]

Incoming economic data in recent weeks have been encouraging. Forward looking indicators such as March's flash purchasing managers' surveys elicited across-the-board improvements in both manufacturing and services. Every major country [...]

State labor markets were, in general, little-changed in February. Only 14 states reported statistically significant changes in payrolls—11 up, 3 down. The two eye-popping moves were the increases in California--141,000 (.9 [...]

State personal incomes were wildly erratic in the 2020:Q4, with annual rates of growth ranging from South Dakota’s 16.7 percent to -16.1 percent in both Rhode Island and Pennsylvania. Two sharply divergent forces were at work: the [...]

The Federal Reserve members' updated projections at the March 16-17 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) paint an optimistic economic view and an unrealistic monetary policy picture. Policymakers now agree with private forecasters [...]

In many respects this year has started where last year left off. The daily news cycle is still dominated by stories about COVID-19 and about how governments are responding to its ebb and flow. A by now familiar pattern has established [...]