ADP Employment & Pay Growth Remain Firm in April
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Job increase is nearly the strongest since July 2023.
- Service-sector and construction sector employment are strong.
- Pace of wage growth steadies y/y.
The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 192,000 during April following a 208,000 March increase, revised from 184,000, and a 176,000 February gain, revised from 155,000. The 1.8% y/y gain compares with 1.9% increase last year but remained below 3.1% growth in 2022. A 193,000 rise in April ADP employment had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Small business hiring (less than 50 employees) increased 38,000 (1.4% y/y) last month after rising 7,000 in March. Employment at medium-sized firms (50-499,000 employees) rose 62,000 (2.4% y/y) after a 118,000 March increase. Large business hiring (500+ employees) rose 98,000 (1.6% y/y) during April following a 78,000 March rise.
Goods-producing employment rose 47,000 last month (1.6% y/y) after a 45,000 March rise. The number of construction sector jobs rose 35,000 (4.2% y/y) following a 34,000 March increase. Hiring in the manufacturing sector edged 9,000 higher (-0.4% y/y) last month after a 3,000 March gain. Natural resource & mining hiring rose 3,000 (5.0% y/y) after an 8,000 increase.
Service-producing jobs rose 145,000 (1.9% y/y) in April following a 163,000 March gain. Leisure & hospitality employment rose 56,000 (4.3% y/y) and education jobs gained 26,000 (2.7% y/y). The number of trade, transportation & utilities jobs increased 26,000 (0.9% y/y). Professional & business services employment rose 22,000 (0.6% y/y) but information employment fell 4,000 (-1.2% y/y).
Growth in median annual pay for "job stayers" eased to 5.0% y/y in April from 5.1% in March, remaining well below a September 2022 high of 7.8% y/y. Pay increases in manufacturing averaged 4.6% y/y while leisure & hospitality rose 5.8% y/y. Pay increases for “job changers” strengthened 9.3% y/y last month, up from a 7.3% y/y low in January, but remained below the 16.4% y/y peak in June 2022.
The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's USECON database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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