Unemployment Insurance Claims Decline Unexpectedly in Latest Week
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Initial claims come in much lower than forecast.
- Continuing claims rise modestly.
- Insured unemployment rate is unchanged.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 215,000 in the week ended April 12 from 224,000 in the prior week, revised from 223,000. The decline compared to expectations for little change at 226,000 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are seasonally adjusted. The four-week moving average fell to 220,750 from 223,250, down from a high of 238,500 in the third week of October.
The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries – also known as continuing claims – rose to 1.885 million in the week ended April 5 from 1.844 million in the prior week, revised from 1.850 million. The four-week moving average was 1.867 million compared to 1.866 million in the prior week.
The insured unemployment rate, which is the number of beneficiaries as a percentage of covered employment, remained at 1.2%. This rate has been stable since the week of January 6, 2024, when it dipped to 1.1%.
Economic conditions vary widely across states and territories. In the week ended March 29, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.56%), Rhode Island (2.50%), California (2.30%), Massachusetts (2.23%), Minnesota (2.21%) and Washington (2.22%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.34%), Alabama (0.41%), Virginia (0.46%), Tennessee (0.48%), and North Carolina (0.52%). Rates in other noteworthy states include New York (1.80%), Pennsylvania (1.65%), Illinois (1.98%) and Texas (1.08%). These state rates are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s WEEKLY database and summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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