ADP Employment Strengthens but Earnings Slow in April
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Private payrolls double March gain.
- Job strength includes leisure, education & health services industries.
- Pay increases continue to moderate.
Nonfarm private sector payrolls increased 296,000 in April (2.5% y/y) after increasing 142,000 during March, revised from 145,000. A 150,000 April increase was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last three months, payrolls rose an average 233,000 per month, the quickest increase since October.
Growth in median annual pay for "job stayers" of 6.7% y/y remained below a September high of 7.8% y/y. The earnings increase was led by 8.9% y/y growth in leisure & hospitality earnings, down from 16.9% y/y growth in March 2022. Financial sector earnings rose a lessened 6.7% y/y. Factory sector pay rose 6.2% y/y, down from a high of 7.8% in September 2022. Professional & business service sector earnings rose a lessened 6.3% y/y.
Small businesses hiring (1-49 employees) rose 121,000 (0.9% y/y) following a little-revised 99,000 March increase. Employment at firms with 50-499 employees rose 122,000 (4.7% y/y), the biggest increase in three months. The three-month average increase weakened to 75,000, half the February increase. Employment at large-sized firms rose 47,000 (1.9% y/y) last month, the strongest increase in three months.
By industry group, goods-producing employment rose 67,000 (1.6% y/y) after a 66,000 March gain. Factory sector jobs declined 38,000 (+0.8% y/y) after falling 32,000 in March. Construction employment strengthened 53,000 (2.1% y/y), about the same as in the prior two months. Hiring in the natural resource & mining sector surged 52,000 (5.8% y/y) following a 45,000 March increase.
Service-producing jobs rose 229,000 last month (2.7% y/y), three times higher than in March and the biggest gain since December. Leisure & hospitality employment jumped 154,000 (8.8% y/y) after rising 97,000 in March. Trade, transportation & utilities payrolls rose 32,000 (1.1% y/y) in April following a 56,000 increase. Education & health care sector employment improved 69,000 (2.7% y/y) after rising 18,000 in March. Information sector jobs rose 2,000 (0.0% y/y) after falling in each of the previous three months. Professional & business services employment declined 16,000 (1.7% y/y) after a 46,000 decline in March. Financial activities employment fell 28,000 (-0.6% y/y), down for the fifth straight month.
By Census region, employment in the Northeast improved 159,000 (5.2% y/y) following a 140,000 March gain. Employment in the West increased 109,000 (2.9% y/y) in April, following a 94,000 March increase. Jobs in the Midwest rose 118,000 (2.5% y/y) after rising 131,000. In the South, the number of jobs declined 100,000 (+0.9% y/y) after a 228,000 shortfall.
The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's USECON database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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