U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Narrows to $99.08 Billion in October
Summary
- Smaller-than-expected goods trade deficit after September’s largest shortfall since March ’22.
- Exports decline 3.2%, the third m/m decrease in four months.
- Imports drop 5.4%, the second m/m fall in three months.
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods narrowed to $99.08 billion in October after widening to $108.69 billion in September (largest since March 2022), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. The October deficit was larger than an $87.58 billion shortfall in October 2023. A deficit of $102.0 billion for October had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The deficit had reached a peak of $120.72 billion in March 2022. In Q3'24, the goods trade deficit widened to $305.88 billion, the largest since Q2'22, after rising to $293.74 billion in Q2'24. The trade deficit subtracted 0.44%-point from real GDP growth in Q3'24 after having subtracted 0.83%-point in Q2'24. The monthly deficit averaged $101.96 billion in Q3'24, the biggest since Q2'22, up from an average of $97.91 billion in Q2'24.
Total goods exports fell 3.2% m/m (-1.4% y/y) in October, the third m/m fall in four months, after a 2.0% decline in September. Exports had fallen 6.9% since a July 2022 high. The fall in exports in October reflected exports m/m drops of 18.6% (-20.6% y/y) in automotive vehicles & parts, 7.0% (+1.4% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos, 5.9% (-3.8% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos, 4.9% (-1.1% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages, and 4.4% (-9.4% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials. In contrast, exports of other goods were the only end-use category with a monthly gain in October; they surged 67.6% (93.5% y/y), the largest of four straight m/m gain and the most on record, on top of a 0.5% September increase.
Total goods imports slid 5.4% (+3.5% y/y) in October, the second m/m slide in three months, following a 4.0% increase in September. Imports had fallen 7.4% since a March 2022 high. The slide in imports in October reflected m/m declines in all imports end-use categories. These included m/m drops of 8.3% (+8.6% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos, 6.1% (-4.7% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials, 3.8% (-3.4% y/y) in automotive vehicles & parts, 3.4% (+8.6% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages, 3.2% (+1.4% y/y) in other goods, and 2.9% (+8.1% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos.
The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in AS1REPNA.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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