Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060221c.jpg" width="353">
French real Gross Domestic Product rose only 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2005 over the third quarter. For the year, GDP was up 1.4%. A growing deficit on foreign trade continued to offset modest gains in domestic demand, that is, consumption plus investment as shown in the first chart.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060221d.jpg" width="353">
A stunning increase in new industrial orders in the fourth quarter of 2005, suggests that GDP growth in the current quarter could surprise on the upside. While new industrial orders are only a small part of the total economy, they are an important catalyst for future growth. There is a loose relationship between the change in new industrial orders and the change in real GDP one quarter later, as shown in the second chart. (We have aggregated the new industrial order series on a quarterly basis to facilitate comparison with GDP movements.)<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060221e.jpg" width="353">
Total new orders increased 19.7% in the fourth quarter of 2005, the largest quarterly increase recorded since the series first began in 1998. Most of the rise was due to a big jump in foreign new orders which rose 20.5% in the quarter. This too was a record increase. Changes in total and foreign new orders are shown in the third chart, which covers the entire period for which the data are available. 

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/FRANCE/FRANCE.HTM">France:&nbsp; GDP and New Industrial Orders</a></th>
<th scope="col">Q4 05</th>
<th scope="col">Q3 05</th>
<th scope="col">Q4 045</th>
<th scope="col">Q/Q %</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y&nbsp; %</th>
<th scope="col">2005&nbsp; </th>
<th scope="col">2004&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2003&nbsp;&nbsp;</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">GDP (Bil. 2000 Euros)</td>
<td>391.2</td>
<td>390.4</td>
<td>386.5</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>1.2</td>
<td>1,556.8</td>
<td>1,535.4</td>
<td>1,504.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Total Consumption</td>
<td>318.4</td>
<td>316.7</td>
<td>312.8</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>1.8</td>
<td>1,263.2</td>
<td>1,239.5</td>
<td>1,210.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Total Fixed Investment</td>
<td>77.4</td>
<td>76.9</td>
<td>74.9</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>3.3</td>
<td>306.5</td>
<td>296.7</td>
<td>290.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Consumption+Investment</td>
<td>395.9</td>
<td>393.6</td>
<td>387.7</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>2.1</td>
<td>1,569.8</td>
<td>1,536.2</td>
<td>1,501.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Net Export of Goods &amp; Service</td>
<td>-8.9</td>
<td>-7.0</td>
<td>-5.1</td>
<td>-1.9*</td>
<td>-3.8*</td>
<td>-29.8</td>
<td>-14.1</td>
<td>2.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"></td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;New Industrial Orders (2000=100)</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
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<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>130.8</td>
<td>109.2</td>
<td>116.5</td>
<td>19.7</td>
<td>12.2</td>
<td>115.2</td>
<td>109.8</td>
<td>100.4</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Foreign</td>
<td>146.6</td>
<td>121.6</td>
<td>115.8</td>
<td>20.5</td>
<td>26.6</td>
<td>125.9</td>
<td>111.3</td>
<td>101.6</td>
</tr>
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French real Gross Domestic Product rose only 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2005 over the third quarter. For the year, GDP was up 1.4%. A growing deficit on foreign trade continued to offset modest gains in domestic demand, that is, [...]

A Stunning Rise in French New Industrial Orders: Better GDP Growth Ahead?

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Tom Moeller

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The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index fell 0.1% (-3.0% y/y) during December, following a 0.4% November rise, revised from 0.3%, and a 0.3% October decline, revised from -0.4%. A 0.1% easing in the December index had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The Leading Index is comprised of 10 components which tend to precede changes in overall economic activity. The index has been trending lower since January 2022, contrasting with positive real economic growth.

During December, component changes amongst the leaders diverged. Series which contributed positively to the index change included a longer factory sector workweek, improved factory orders for consumer goods, an increase in orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, higher stock prices in the S&P 500 index and the leading credit index. Series contributing negatively were higher initial unemployment insurance claims, a lower ISM new orders index, falling building permits, the interest rate yield curve and consumer expectations for business/economic conditions.

The Coincident Economic Index rose 0.4% last month (1.6% y/y) after rising 0.2% in November and holding steady in October. Movement amongst the four components was uniformly positive in December. Industrial production jumped by the largest amount since February, real personal income strengthened steadily, payroll employment improved on prior two months’ increases while real manufacturing & trade sales rose steadily.

The Lagging Economic Index improved 0.1% last month (0.3% y/y) after rising 0.2% in November and remaining unchanged in October. The 6-month change in the services CPI, the 6-month change in unit labor costs and the ratio of consumer installment credit-to-personal income contributed positively to the index change. The business inventory-to-sales ratio contributed nothing to the index change. The duration of unemployment, the prime interest rate charged by banks and commercial & industrial loans outstanding contributed negatively to the index change.

The ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators, considered another leading indicator, rose 0.3% last month after holding steady for two straight months.

The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's **BCI** database; the components are available there, and most are also in **USECON**. The expectations are in the **AS1REPNA** database. Visit the Conference Board's [website](https://www.conference-board.org/us/) for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.

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- Movement in leading indicator components remains mixed.
- Coincident indicators strengthen.
- Lagging indicators edge higher.

U.S. Leading Indicators Ease

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Retail gasoline prices for all grades rose to an average $3.23 per gallon (1.5% y/y) in the week ending January 20 from $3.16 in the prior week. The all-time high of $5.11 was in the week ending June 13, 2022. The retail price for on-highway diesel fuel jumped	to $3.72 per gallon (-3.2% y/y) in the week of January 20, the highest level since early-August, from $3.60 in the prior week. The latest price was down from a high of $4.63 in the week ending September 18, 2023 and a peak of $5.81 in the week ending June 20, 2022.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose to $78.58 per barrel (7.3% y/y) in the week ending January 17 after increasing to $74.32 in the prior week. It was the highest level in five months but still below the peak of $120.46 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $75.89 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude oil rose to $82.53 per barrel (3.0% y/y) in the week of January 17 from $78.14 in the prior week. Prices remained below a peak of $127.40 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday’s price was $80.57 per barrel.

Natural gas prices surged to an average $5.47/mmbtu (87.3% y/y) in the week of January 17 from $3.93 in the prior week, posting the highest level since a high of $5.11/mmbtu in the week of January 12, 2024. Prices reached a low of $1.40/mmbtu in the week of March 15, 2024 and a peak of $9.56 in the week of August 26, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $4.40/mmbtu.

Gasoline demand rose 0.8% y/y in the four weeks ending January 10 on top of a 1.2% y/y gain in the prior four weeks. Demand for all petroleum products increased 1.1% y/y in the four weeks ending January 10. Crude oil input to refineries increased 1.2% y/y in the four weeks ending January 10 after a 1.5% y/y rise in the prior four weeks.

Gasoline inventories fell 1.8% y/y in the week ending January 10 after a 3.0% y/y decline in the prior week. In contrast, residual fuel oil inventories fell 12.1% y/y in the week of January 10 following a 5.7% y/y decrease in the prior week. Crude oil inventories rose 2.7% y/y in the week of January 10, the same as during the prior week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories rose to 28.7 days in the week of January 10 from 27.5 days in the prior	 week, registering the highest reading since the end of February 2024. The recent low was 22.9 days in the week of November 8. The supply of crude oil was little changed at 24.6 days in the week of January 10, still near the lowest number since a low of 24.8 days in the week of September 20, 2024 and below a high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** & **USENERGY** database.

- Gasoline prices reach three-month high.
- Crude oil costs surge.
- Natural gas prices strengthen to two-year high.

U.S. Energy Prices Increase Sharply

Winnie Tapasanun

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Mortgage applications edged up 0.1% w/w (2.9% y/y) in the week ending January 17 following a 33.3% rebound in the week ending January 10 and four straight weekly declines, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. The latest reading was the second successive weekly gain to the index level of 224.6, a six-week high. Applications for loans to purchase a house rose 0.6% (-6.5% y/y) in the January 17 week after a 26.9% jump in the January 10 week and three consecutive w/w decreases. Applications for loan refinancing fell 2.9% (+27.5% y/y) in the January 17 week, the first w/w fall since the December 27 week, following a 43.5% surge in the previous week.

Mortgage interest rates generally remained high; thus, having restrained mortgage applications. The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan fell 8bps to a still-high 7.20% in the week ending January 17, the first w/w fall since the December 6 week, after rising to 7.28% in the week ending January 10; it was up from a low of 6.29% in the week of September 20, 2024 but down from a high of 8.12% in the week of October 20, 2023. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages held steady at 6.61% in the January 17 week; it was down 83bps from a high of 7.44% in the week of October 27, 2023. The rate on 30-year jumbo loans declined 9bps to 7.13% in the January 17 week, the lowest since the December 13 week, from 7.22% in the prior week; it was down 86bps from a high of 7.99% in the week of October 27, 2023. By contrast, the rate on a 5-year ARM rose 24bps to 6.62% in the January 17 week from 6.38% in the previous week; it was above its recent low of 5.84% in the week of September 13, 2024 but down 69bps from a high of 7.31% in the week of October 27, 2023.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan fell to 40.4% of total applications in the week ending January 17 from 42.7% in the week ending January 10, registering the first w/w drop and the lowest since the December 27 week. That was down from 55.7% in the week of September 20, 2024. Meanwhile, the adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rose to 5.5% in the January 17 week, the highest since the December 20 week, from 5.0% in the prior week; it was slightly up from a low of 5.4% in the week of January 5, 2024 but below a high of 10.7% in the week of October 27, 2023.

The average size of a mortgage loan increased 1.8% w/w (-0.9% y/y) to $373,800 in the January 17 week, the highest since the December 13 week, after a 2.1% rebound to $367,100 in the January 10 week. The average size of a purchase loan rose 2.9% (1.5% y/y) to $431,600 in the January 17 week, the highest since the November 29 week, after a 1.3% rise to $419,600 in the prior week. In contrast, the average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage fell 2.9% (+3.6% y/y) to $288,300 in the January 17 week, the fourth w/w decline in five weeks, after a 6.0% gain to $296,800 in the previous week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Purchase applications rise 0.6% w/w while refinancing loan applications fall 2.9% w/w.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans drops to a still-high 7.20%.
- Average loan size rises to the highest since the December 13 week.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Increase a Marginal 0.1% in the January 17 Week

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Recent strength in factory sector production generated life in pricing power. The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) rose 1.0% (2.1% y/y) during the four weeks ended January 17, 2025, reversing a 1.0% decline in the prior four weeks. The level of the index was its highest since the second week of November.

Leading the rise, Crude Oil & Benzene group prices strengthened 4.0% (-2.3% y/y) in the latest four weeks. The cost of West Texas Intermediate crude oil jumped 11.2% in four weeks to $78.33 per barrel and stood 7.4% higher y/y. It was increased from a $68.58 low in the first week of December. The cost of the petro-chemical benzene, used for making plastics & synthetic fibers, eased 0.4% (-22.8% y/y) in the last four weeks. Excluding crude oil, the industrial commodity price index edged 0.4% higher (1.7% y/y) in the latest four-week period.

Also moving higher, prices in the Miscellaneous group improved 1.9% during the last four weeks and rose 5.1% y/y. Plywood prices strengthened 8.5% over the last four-week period (7.6% y/y) while the cost of natural rubber improved 1.4% in four weeks, but jumped 32.6% y/y.

To the downside, prices in the Metals group slipped 0.6% (+5.0% y/y) over the most recent four weeks. Zinc prices fell 6.4% (+14.0 y/y) in four weeks and steel scrap prices were off 1.2% (-17.9% y/y). The cost of lead fell 1.9% in four weeks (-6.2% y/y). Offsetting these declines, aluminum prices increased 2.5% during the last four weeks (19.7% y/y). Tin costs rose 1.7% (19.3 y/y) while copper scrap prices improved 1.5% (9.5% y/y) over four weeks.

Textile prices eased 0.2% (-1.9% y/y) over the last four-week period. Cotton prices fell 1.3% (-18.8% y/y) and the cost of burlap held steady (+14.2% y/y) during the last four weeks.

The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's **DAILY**, **WEEKLY**, **USECON** and **CMDTY** databases.

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- Crude oil prices increase sharply.
- Lumber & rubber costs rise.
- Metals prices are mixed.

FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Strengthen in Latest Four Weeks