Balance of Trade in Goods: Czech Republic and Kazakhstan

The Czech Republic and Kazakhstan released data on exports and imports of goods for December. The data for the Czech Republic are in Koruny and US dollars; that of Kazakhstan in US Dollars only. The monthly trade in goods when aggregated quarterly should equal the quarterly data reported in the balance of payments. The fact that they do not equal is probably due to differences in timing. The two series are, however, close as the high correlations between the two series indicate. (See the first two charts)

The monthly data for the Czech Republic suggest that the balance of payments data should show a sharp rise in the goods balance in the fourth quarter. The monthly data for Kazakhstan, on the contrary, suggest a sharp decline in the goods balance reported in the balance of payments.

Taking a somewhat longer look and including the balance on services, we find that the Czech Republic has traditionally had a deficit on goods and a surplus on services. It is just since late 2004 that the Republic has had a surplus on trade in goods (as can be seen in the third chart). Ever since mid 1999 Kazakhstan has had a surplus on trade in goods and a deficit on trade in services as seen in the fourth chart. Since mid 2002, the balance on goods has more than offset the deficit on services.