Global| Sep 24 2007Belgium National Bank Index Softens
Summary
Belgium is not one of the large EU countries. But it is situated in the heart of the union and it does issue an index ahead of those issued by other EU member countries. It is the timeliness of this index and its correlation with the [...]
Belgium is not one of the large EU countries. But it is situated in the heart of the union and it does issue an index ahead of those issued by other EU member countries. It is the timeliness of this index and its correlation with the main Euro area indexes as well as with those of Germany that make the Belgium National Bank Indexes interesting to us. It is a timely report and serves as a decent bellwether for the Euro area.
Its sector plotting, the accompanying chart shows that the main Belgium sectors have peaked and are losing some momentum. Wholesaling and retailing has made the largest drop in September – a decline of six points. The Belgian index shows a drop in the most important sector indexes (construction excluded). In its MFG detail it shows domestic orders fall into negative territory while foreign orders are just expanding on a less widespread basis. These trends are roughly consistent with what we have been seeing in the rest of the Euro area, except through July Euro area foreign orders have been weaker than domestic orders.
| Belgium National Bank Indexes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep-07 | Aug-07 | Jul-07 | 3-Mo Change | 6-Mo Change | 12-Mo Change | |
| Total Industry | 1.5 | 3.3 | 4.2 | -4.0 | 0.1 | -3.0 |
| Manufacturing | 1.4 | 2.8 | 4.5 | -5.1 | 2.4 | -3.6 |
| Production | 0.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | -8.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Domestic Orders | -3.0 | 1.0 | -2.0 | -8.0 | -7.0 | -8.0 |
| Foreign Orders | 8.0 | 9.0 | 14.0 | -3.0 | 11.0 | -1.0 |
| Prices | 3.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | -10.0 | -6.0 | -10.0 |
| Current assessment | ||||||
| Total Orders | -2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -5.0 | 1.0 | -8.0 |
| Foreign Orders | 1.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | -3.0 | 4.0 | -4.0 |
| Inventories | -1.0 | 0.0 | -3.0 | 6.0 | -5.0 | -1.0 |
| -- | -- | -- | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Wholesale & Retail | 0.0 | 6.5 | 4.8 | -4.2 | -6.3 | -4.2 |
| Construction | 3.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.1 | -4.0 | 0.7 |
| Business Services | 13.8 | 15.2 | 15.9 | -4.2 | -1.1 | 3.7 |
| Comparisons: | Changes lag one month | |||||
| EU Index: Industry | #N/A | 5.0 | 5.0 | -1.0 | -2.0 | 2.0 |
| Germany Index: Industry | #N/A | 8.0 | 8.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 4.0 |
| Compare: BNB Index | -- | -- | -- | -0.6 | -0.5 | 0.2 |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
