Global| May 13 2016Business Inventories Have First Gain in 6 Months
Summary
Total business inventories grew 0.4% m/m in March (+1.5% y/y) following a 0.1% dip in February, which was unrevised. Total business sales rose 0.3% m/m (-1.7% y/y), their first increase since last June. Retail inventories increased [...]
Total business inventories grew 0.4% m/m in March (+1.5% y/y) following a 0.1% dip in February, which was unrevised. Total business sales rose 0.3% m/m (-1.7% y/y), their first increase since last June.
Retail inventories increased 1.0% in March (+6.7% y/y) following a 0.7% rise, revised from 0.6%. Motor vehicle & parts inventories rose 2.3% (+1.4% y/y). Outside the vehicle sector, retail inventories gained 0.4% (4.2% y/y) following 0.2% in February and 0.1% in January. Furniture & home furnishings inventories rose 0.2% (-0.6% y/y) following 0.1% in February. Clothing store inventories were unchanged m/m (+4.6% y/y) after a 0.4% rise. Building materials inventories were up 0.4% (6.0% y/y), similar to moves in the prior two months. General merchandise store inventories gained 0.7% (3.1% y/y) after two months of essentially no change. Food & beverage store inventories dropped 0.8% (0.8% y/y), reversing a February increase of the same size.
Merchant wholesale inventories broke a five-month string of declines with a modest 0.1% rise in March (+0.3% y/y). Inventories in the manufacturing sector broke a string of eight consecutive declines with a 0.2% rise (-2.1% y/y).
Overall business sales gained 0.3% (-1.7% y/y). Retail sales in March were off 0.3% (+1.1% y/y) after edging up 0.1%; as noted elsewhere today, April retail sales rebounded sharply. Wholesale sales advanced 0.7% (-2.0% y/y), their first increase in six months, and factory sector shipments also broke their string of declines with a 0.5% increase (-3.7% y/y) after eight straight months of decline.
The inventory-to-sales ratio in the business sector remained at 1.41 for a third month, the highest level since August 2009. The ratio in the retail sector rose to 1.52, also its highest since mid-2009 although excluding autos, it edged down to 1.29 in March from 1.30 the month before. The I/S ratio in the motor vehicle sector rose to 2.30 from 2.18 in the month, clothing inventories rose to 2.56 months of sales from 2.54 and general merchandise store inventories edged up to a 1.49 ratio to sales from 1.48. Other sectors' I/S ratios were steady, furniture at 1.56, building materials at 1.78, and food at 0.78.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
| Manufacturing & Trade (%) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Inventories | 0.4 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3.9 | 4.3 |
| Retail | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 7.4 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 4.8 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 0.1 | -0.6 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 6.5 | 4.0 |
| Manufacturing | 0.2 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -2.1 | -1.9 | 2.4 | 1.9 |
| Business Sales (%) | |||||||
| Total | 0.3 | -0.3 | -0.8 | -1.7 | -2.6 | 3.3 | 2.9 |
| Retail | -0.3 | 0.1 | -0.3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 3.8 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.6 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 3.2 | 2.6 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 0.7 | -0.2 | -1.9 | -2.0 | -4.3 | 3.6 | 3.1 |
| Manufacturing | 0.5 | -0.8 | -0.2 | -3.7 | -4.2 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| I/S Ratio | |||||||
| Total | 1.41 | 1.41 | 1.41 | 1.37 | 1.37 | 1.31 | 1.29 |
| Retail | 1.52 | 1.50 | 1.49 | 1.44 | 1.46 | 1.43 | 1.41 |
| Retail Excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.29 | 1.26 | 1.27 | 1.24 | 1.23 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.37 | 1.32 | 1.32 | 1.21 | 1.18 |
| Manufacturing | 1.37 | 1.37 | 1.37 | 1.34 | 1.35 | 1.31 | 1.30 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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