Global| Dec 14 2007CBI Survey Shows Industrial Slowing and Lingering Inflation
Summary
The CBI Industrial Survey shows still firm readings for measures of activity. Orders are still in the 86th percentile of their range. Export orders remain in the 98th percentile of their range. Output volume is much softer in the 55th [...]
The CBI Industrial Survey shows still firm readings for
measures of activity. Orders are still in the 86th percentile of their
range. Export orders remain in the 98th percentile of their range.
Output volume is much softer in the 55th percentile of its range.
Stocks are a bit above mid range as well in their 57th percentile,
roughly balanced with the position of sales. Average prices expected
remain elevated with a +15 reading, down from +21 in November but still
in the 82nd percentile of their range.
Orders are surprisingly resilient especially for exports a
surprise given the buoyancy of the pound sterling and given the slowing
signals we have seen for the Euro area, to say nothing of slowing in
the US. But output volume has sunken well below its 12-month average of
+15 to stand at +3. There is some disconnect between orders and output
trends. Clearly one aspect is that the overseas economies are holding
up better than is the UK economy. Meanwhile, the average inflation
reading over 12 months is +17 and that is only a touch stronger than
the +15 reading for December that lingers as current output readings
have softened.
| UK Industrial Volume Data CBI Survey | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reported: | Dec-07 | Nov-07 | Oct-07 | Sep-07 | 12MO Avg | Pcntle | Max | Min | Range |
| Total Orders | 2 | 8 | -6 | 6 | 3 | 86% | 9 | -40 | 49 |
| Export Orders | 2 | -4 | -9 | -2 | -3 | 98% | 3 | -50 | 53 |
| Stocks: Finished Goods | 14 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 57% | 26 | -2 | 28 |
| Output Volume: Next 3-Mo | 3 | 9 | 10 | 17 | 15 | 55% | 28 | -28 | 56 |
| Avg Prices 4Nxt 3m | 15 | 21 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 82% | 25 | -30 | 55 |
| From end 2000 | |||||||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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